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author:

Li, T. (Li, T..) [1] | Wang, Y. (Wang, Y..) [2] | Liu, F. (Liu, F..) [3] | Turner, I (Turner, I.) [4]

Indexed by:

Scopus SCIE

Abstract:

An inverse problem to identify parameters for the single-term (and multi-term) fractional-order system of an outbreak of dengue fever is considered. Firstly, we propose a numerical method for the fractional-order dengue fever system based on the Gorenflo-Mainardi-Moretti-Paradisi (GMMP) scheme and the Newton method. Secondly, two methods, the modified grid approximation method (MGAM) and the modified hybrid Nelder-Mead simplex search and particle swarm optimization (MH-NMSS-PSO) algorithm are expanded to estimate the fractional orders and coefficients for fractional differential equations. Then, we use GMMP and MH-NMSS-PSO to estimate the parameters of the fractional-order dengue fever system. With the new fractional orders and parameters, our fractional-order dengue fever system is capable of providing numerical results that agree very well with the real data. Furthermore, for searching a better dengue fever system, a multi-term fractional-order epidemic system of dengue fever is proposed. We also use the MGAM and MH-NMSS-PSO to estimate the fractional orders and coefficients of the multi-term fractional-order system. To verify the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed methods in dealing with the fractional inverse problem, a numerical example with real data is investigated. Using the statistics from the 2009 outbreak of the disease in the Cape Verde islands, we are able to predict the fractional orders and parameters of the fractional dengue fever system. With the new fractional orders and parameters, our multi-term fractional-order dengue fever system is capable of providing numerical results that agree better with the real data than other integer-order models.

Keyword:

Fractional dynamical epidemic model Grid approximation method Inverse problem Parameter estimation Simplex search method

Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Li, T.]Sichuan Univ Sci & Engn, Sch Math & Stat, Zigong 643000, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Wang, Y.]Sichuan Univ Sci & Engn, Sch Math & Stat, Zigong 643000, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Liu, F.]Queensland Univ Technol, Sch Math Sci, Brisbane, Qld 4001, Australia
  • [ 4 ] [Turner, I]Queensland Univ Technol, Sch Math Sci, Brisbane, Qld 4001, Australia
  • [ 5 ] [Liu, F.]Fuzhou Univ, Coll Math & Comp Sci, Fuzhou 350116, Fujian, Peoples R China
  • [ 6 ] [Turner, I]Queensland Univ Technol, Australian Res Council, Ctr Excellence Math & Stat Frontiers ACEMS, Brisbane, Qld, Australia

Reprint 's Address:

  • 待查

    [Liu, F.]Queensland Univ Technol, Sch Math Sci, Brisbane, Qld 4001, Australia;;[Liu, F.]Fuzhou Univ, Coll Math & Comp Sci, Fuzhou 350116, Fujian, Peoples R China

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Source :

NUMERICAL ALGORITHMS

ISSN: 1017-1398

Year: 2019

Issue: 4

Volume: 82

Page: 1467-1495

2 . 0 6 4

JCR@2019

1 . 7 0 0

JCR@2023

ESI Discipline: MATHEMATICS;

ESI HC Threshold:59

JCR Journal Grade:1

CAS Journal Grade:2

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 15

SCOPUS Cited Count: 15

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 0

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