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author:

Cheng, Shifen (Cheng, Shifen.) [1] | Lu, Feng (Lu, Feng.) [2] | Peng, Peng (Peng, Peng.) [3] | Wu, Sheng (Wu, Sheng.) [4] (Scholars:吴升)

Indexed by:

SSCI EI Scopus

Abstract:

Accurate and robust short-term traffic forecasting is a critical issue in intelligent transportation systems and realtime traffic-related applications. Existing short-term traffic forecasting approaches adopt fixed model structures and assume traffic correlations between adjacent road segments within assigned time periods. Due to the inherent spatial heterogeneity of city traffic, it is difficult for these approaches to obtain stable and satisfying results. To overcome the problems of fixed model structures and quantitatively unclear spatiotemporal dependency relationships, this paper proposes an adaptive spatiotemporal k-nearest neighbor model (adaptive-STKNN) for short-term traffic forecasting. It comprehensively considers the spatial heterogeneity of city traffic based on adaptive spatial neighbors, time windows, spatiotemporal weights and other parameters. First, for each road segment, we determine the sizes of spatial neighbors and the lengths of time windows for traffic influence using cross-correlation and autocorrelation functions, respectively. Second, adaptive spatiotemporal weights are introduced into the distance functions to optimize the candidate neighbor search mechanism. Next, we establish adaptive spatiotemporal parameters to reflect continuous changes in traffic conditions, including the number of candidate neighbors and the weight allocation parameter in the predictive function. Finally, we evaluate the adaptive-STKNN model using two vehicular speed datasets collected on expressways in California, U.S.A., and on city roads in Beijing, China. Four traditional prediction models are compared with the adaptive-STKNN model in terms of forecasting accuracy and generalization ability. The results demonstrate that the adaptive-STKNN model outperforms those models during all time periods and especially the peak period. In addition, the results also show the generalization ability of the adaptive-STKNN model.

Keyword:

Adaptive spatiotemporal k-nearest neighbor model Short-term traffic forecasting Spatial heterogeneity Traffic patterns

Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Cheng, Shifen]Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Lu, Feng]Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Peng, Peng]Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Cheng, Shifen]Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
  • [ 5 ] [Lu, Feng]Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
  • [ 6 ] [Peng, Peng]Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
  • [ 7 ] [Cheng, Shifen]Fujian Collaborat Innovat Ctr Big Data Applicat G, Fuzhou 350003, Fujian, Peoples R China
  • [ 8 ] [Lu, Feng]Fujian Collaborat Innovat Ctr Big Data Applicat G, Fuzhou 350003, Fujian, Peoples R China
  • [ 9 ] [Wu, Sheng]Fujian Collaborat Innovat Ctr Big Data Applicat G, Fuzhou 350003, Fujian, Peoples R China
  • [ 10 ] [Lu, Feng]Jiangsu Ctr Collaborat Innovat Geog Informat Reso, Nanjing 210023, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
  • [ 11 ] [Wu, Sheng]Fuzhou Univ, Spatial Informat Res Ctr Fujian Prov, Fuzhou 350002, Fujian, Peoples R China

Reprint 's Address:

  • [Lu, Feng]Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China

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Source :

COMPUTERS ENVIRONMENT AND URBAN SYSTEMS

ISSN: 0198-9715

Year: 2018

Volume: 71

Page: 186-198

3 . 3 9 3

JCR@2018

7 . 1 0 0

JCR@2023

ESI Discipline: SOCIAL SCIENCES, GENERAL;

ESI HC Threshold:113

JCR Journal Grade:1

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count:

SCOPUS Cited Count:

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 2

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