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author:

Pan, Wentuan (Pan, Wentuan.) [1] | Zhong, Shangping (Zhong, Shangping.) [2] (Scholars:钟尚平) | Huang, Silan (Huang, Silan.) [3] | Wu, Danping (Wu, Danping.) [4]

Indexed by:

CPCI-S

Abstract:

Power grid is often destroyed due to frequent typhoon disasters in coastal area of China, when making urgent repair on it, the guarantee of emergency supplies of power grid became vital. Currently, the sample data collected by the power grid company for typhoon events is relatively few, while typhoons events continue to occur, the data could be constantly obtained along with time series, but the traditional predictive methods for emergency supplies quantity is offline mode mostly. In this paper, we come up with an Online-RVM model to predict emergency supplies quantity by extract feature of typhoon event. In this model, we first use microgenetic algorithm to find out the optimal RVM kernel function parameter, and introduce fast marginal likelihood algorithm to speed up the model update. It turned out that the prediction model we came up with gain good performance in small sample training data compared with classic predictive methods for emergency supplies, and it could has a quick and accurate prediction for emergency supplies quantity in next typhoon event.

Keyword:

emergency material forecasting relevance vector machine typhoon event feature vector

Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Pan, Wentuan]Fuzhou Univ, Coll Math & Comp Sci, Fuzhou, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Zhong, Shangping]Fuzhou Univ, Coll Math & Comp Sci, Fuzhou, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Huang, Silan]Fuzhou Univ, Coll Math & Comp Sci, Fuzhou, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Wu, Danping]Fuzhou Univ, Coll Math & Comp Sci, Fuzhou, Peoples R China

Reprint 's Address:

  • 潘文团

    [Pan, Wentuan]Fuzhou Univ, Coll Math & Comp Sci, Fuzhou, Peoples R China

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Source :

PROCEEDINGS OF 2016 9TH INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON COMPUTATIONAL INTELLIGENCE AND DESIGN (ISCID), VOL 1

ISSN: 2165-1701

Year: 2016

Page: 402-405

Language: English

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 5

SCOPUS Cited Count:

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 0

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