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For monitoring and modeling a structural element's or system's lifecycle behavior, this paper presents a new model of non-stationary Markov Chain as a random process. It is to take into account the element's or system's age as an important factor in modeling. The transition probability matrix is now age-dependent not constant for all ages as in a stationary Markov Chain. Therefore, a number of such matrices will be needed to model the entire life of the object's deterioration and renewal process. Given inspection data of condition state evolution, a fitting scheme is also proposed here to estimate the non-stationary transition probabilities depending on age. Application of the proposed model to Michigan bridge inspection data shows improved modeling results. This approach was also applied to the bridge condition rating data in the US National Bridge Inventory format and thereby produced more realistic predictions.
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APPLICATIONS OF STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY IN CIVIL ENGINEERING
Year: 2011
Page: 626-633
Language: English
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ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All
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30 Days PV: 0
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