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author:

Lin, Hualing (Lin, Hualing.) [1] | Sun, Qiubi (Sun, Qiubi.) [2]

Indexed by:

EI

Abstract:

Accurate prediction of crude oil prices is meaningful for reducing firm risks, stabilizing commodity prices and maintaining national financial security. Wrong crude oil price forecasts can bring huge losses to governments, enterprises, investors and even cause economic and social instability. Many classic econometrics and computational approaches show good performance for the ordinary time series prediction tasks, but not satisfactory in crude oil price predictions. They ignore the characteristics of non-linearity and non-stationarity of crude oil prices data, which hinder an accurate prediction and eventually lead to poor accuracy or the wrong result. Empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and ensemble EMD (EEMD) solve the problems of non-stationary time series forecasting, but they also generate new problems of mode mixing and reconstruction errors. We propose a hybrid method that is combination of the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) and multi-layer gated recurrent unit (ML-GRU) neural network to solve the abovementioned issues. This not only deals with the issue of mode mixing effectively, but also makes the reconstruction error of data close to zero. Multi-layer GRU has an excellent ability of nonlinear data-fitting. The experimental results of real WTI crude oil dataset show that the proposed approach perform better in crude oil prices forecasts than some state-of-the-art models. © 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

Keyword:

Costs Crude oil price Economics Forecasting Mixing Multilayer neural networks Recurrent neural networks Signal processing Spurious signal noise Time series Time series analysis

Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Lin, Hualing]Department of Statistics, School of Economics and Management, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou; 350018, China
  • [ 2 ] [Sun, Qiubi]Department of Statistics, School of Economics and Management, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou; 350018, China

Reprint 's Address:

  • [lin, hualing]department of statistics, school of economics and management, fuzhou university, fuzhou; 350018, china

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Source :

Energies

Year: 2020

Issue: 7

Volume: 13

3 . 0 0 4

JCR@2020

3 . 0 0 0

JCR@2023

ESI HC Threshold:132

JCR Journal Grade:3

CAS Journal Grade:4

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count:

SCOPUS Cited Count:

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 0

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