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Abstract:
In order to improve the prediction accuracy, firstly GM(2,1) has been improved with the linear combination of the forward and backward difference scheme, where the parameter λ has been used to correct the background value; secondly the parameter ρ was used for a multiple transformation on the initial data, a new GM(2,1, λ, ρ) has been constructed in this paper. Because of the nonlinear traits between λ, ρ and the prediction errors, they are difficult to be solved, then GM(2,1, λ, ρ) based on Particle Swarm Optimization(PSO-GM (2,1, λ, ρ)) has been proposed, where λ and ρ have been constituted a two-dimensional particle swarm, absolute of mean relative error has been as fitness function, its minimization has been as objective function, then the best λ, ρ have been solved. The practical examples show that the speed of convergence in PSO-GM (2,1, λ, ρ) is rapid, the prediction accuracy is much higher than that of the GM(2,1), and it can meet practical need.
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System Engineering Theory and Practice
ISSN: 1000-6788
CN: 11-2267/N
Year: 2008
Issue: 10
Volume: 28
Page: 96-101
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SCOPUS Cited Count:
ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All
WanFang Cited Count:
Chinese Cited Count:
30 Days PV: 2
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