Regional　transportation　development　(RTD)　is　an　important　stressor　of　urban　agglomeration　ecosystems.　Groundwater　recharge　potential　may　be　adversely　affected　when　natural　soil　is　replaced　by　impervious　materials.　To　systematically　identify　the　urban　agglomeration　ecological　risk　(UAER)　of　RTD　in　the　southern　Fujian　Golden　Triangle,　water　regulation　was　used　as　an　assessment　endpoint,　and　RTD　was　considered　the　stressor.　We　used　the　Soil　Conservation　Service　Curve　Number　method　(SCS-CN)　to　analyze　the　internal　relationship　between　the　assessment　endpoint　and　the　stressor　factors.　Then,　a　multi-level　risk　characterization　method　was　used　to　show　the　evolutionary　process　of　risk,　and　to　provide　a　scientific　basis　for　the　management　of　UAER.　Based　on　the　current　RTD　plan,　the　UAER　assessment　shows　that　there　is　a　0.90　probability　of　that　the　risk　distribution　results　will　occur　by　2030.　The　intensity　of　stress　from　arterial　roads　on　the　urban　agglomeration　ecosystem　is　greater　than　that　of　the　railway　system.　By　considering　the　development　of　the　railway　system　as　a　factor　in　the　stress　of　RTD,　this　study　of　UAER　assessment　differs　from　past　studies　of　urban　ecological　risk　assessment,　since　the　latter　considers　only　highways.　We　also　propose　a　systematic　method　of　risk　assessment　simulation-prediction.　©　2018　by　the　authors.