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This paper explores the dependence between real crude oil price changes and Chinese real industry stock market returns based on the monthly data from 1994/03 to 2014/06. We address this issue using the quantile regression approach, enabling a more detailed investigation of structure and degree of dependence. Empirical results reveal that the reaction of market returns to crude oil is highly heterogeneous across conditional distribution of industry stock returns. Furthermore, there is evidence that this dependence is positive and exists only in recessions or bearish markets with low expected returns. The dependence at low quantiles is not limited to one market, but is a common feature across industries. Additionally, dependence also changes since the onset of structural breaks. We determine that Chinese industry stock and global crude oil markets have contagion in rare situations. Most cases do not demonstrate contagion. © 2016 Elsevier B.V.
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Energy Economics
ISSN: 0140-9883
Year: 2016
Volume: 55
Page: 30-41
3 . 1 9 9
JCR@2016
1 3 . 6 0 0
JCR@2023
ESI HC Threshold:204
JCR Journal Grade:1
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ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All
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30 Days PV: 0
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