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author:

Wang, J. (Wang, J..) [1] | Jia, P. (Jia, P..) [2] | Cuadros, D.F. (Cuadros, D.F..) [3] | Xu, M. (Xu, M..) [4] | Wang, X. (Wang, X..) [5] | Guo, W. (Guo, W..) [6] | Portnov, B.A. (Portnov, B.A..) [7] | Bao, Y. (Bao, Y..) [8] | Chang, Y. (Chang, Y..) [9] | Song, G. (Song, G..) [10] | Chen, N. (Chen, N..) [11] | Stein, A. (Stein, A..) [12]

Indexed by:

Scopus

Abstract:

Remote sensing technologies can accurately capture environmental characteristics, and together with environmental modeling approaches, help to predict climate-sensitive infectious disease outbreaks. Brucellosis remains rampant worldwide in both domesticated animals and humans. This study used human brucellosis (HB) as a test case to identify important environmental determinants of the disease and predict its outbreaks. A novel artificial neural network (ANN) model was developed, using annual county-level numbers of HB cases and data on 37 environmental variables, potentially associated with HB in Inner Mongolia, China. Data from 2006 to 2008 were used to train, validate and test the model, while data for 2009-2010 were used to assess the model's performance. The Enhanced Vegetation Index was identified as the most important predictor of HB incidence, followed by land surface temperature and other temperature- and precipitation-related variables. The suitable ecological niche of HB was modeled based on these predictors. Model estimates were found to be in good agreement with reported numbers of HB cases in both the model development and assessment phases. The study suggests that HB outbreaks may be predicted, with a reasonable degree of accuracy, using the ANN model and environmental variables obtained from satellite data. The study deepened the understanding of environmental determinants of HB and advanced the methodology for prediction of climate-sensitive infectious disease outbreaks. © 2017 by the authors.

Keyword:

Artificial neural network (ANN); Brucellosis; Climate-sensitive; Disease outbreak prediction; Environmental health; Infectious disease; Inner Mongolia; Remote sensing

Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Wang, J.]Key Laboratory of Geospatial Technology for the Middle and Lower Yellow River Regions, Ministry of Education, Henan University, Kaifeng, 475004, China
  • [ 2 ] [Wang, J.]National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 100021, China
  • [ 3 ] [Jia, P.]Department of Earth Observation Science, Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation, University of Twente, Enschede, 7500, Netherlands
  • [ 4 ] [Cuadros, D.F.]Department of Geography and Geographic Information Science, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH 45221, United States
  • [ 5 ] [Cuadros, D.F.]Health Geography and Disease Modeling Laboratory, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH 45221, United States
  • [ 6 ] [Xu, M.]State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China
  • [ 7 ] [Wang, X.]National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 100021, China
  • [ 8 ] [Guo, W.]Inner Mongolia Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hohhot, 010031, China
  • [ 9 ] [Portnov, B.A.]Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Management, Faculty of Management, University of Haifa, Haifa, 3498838, Israel
  • [ 10 ] [Bao, Y.]Inner Mongolian Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing and GIS, Inner Mongolia Normal University, Hohhot, 010022, China
  • [ 11 ] [Chang, Y.]Inner Mongolian Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing and GIS, Inner Mongolia Normal University, Hohhot, 010022, China
  • [ 12 ] [Song, G.]Key Laboratory of Geospatial Technology for the Middle and Lower Yellow River Regions, Ministry of Education, Henan University, Kaifeng, 475004, China
  • [ 13 ] [Chen, N.]Key Laboratory of Spatial Data Mining and Information Sharing of Ministry of Education, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou, 350003, China
  • [ 14 ] [Stein, A.]Department of Earth Observation Science, Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation, University of Twente, Enschede, 7500, Netherlands

Reprint 's Address:

  • [Jia, P.]Department of Earth Observation Science, Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation, University of TwenteNetherlands

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Source :

Remote Sensing

ISSN: 2072-4292

Year: 2017

Issue: 10

Volume: 9

3 . 4 0 6

JCR@2017

4 . 2 0 0

JCR@2023

ESI HC Threshold:177

JCR Journal Grade:2

CAS Journal Grade:3

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 0

SCOPUS Cited Count: 16

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 0

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