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author:

Yin, Ling (Yin, Ling.) [1] | Zhang, Hao (Zhang, Hao.) [2] | Li, Yuan (Li, Yuan.) [3] | Liu, Kang (Liu, Kang.) [4] | Chen, Tianmu (Chen, Tianmu.) [5] | Luo, Wei (Luo, Wei.) [6] | Lai, Shengjie (Lai, Shengjie.) [7] | Li, Ye (Li, Ye.) [8] | Tang, Xiujuan (Tang, Xiujuan.) [9] | Ning, Li (Ning, Li.) [10] | Feng, Shengzhong (Feng, Shengzhong.) [11] | Wei, Yanjie (Wei, Yanjie.) [12] | Zhao, Zhiyuan (Zhao, Zhiyuan.) [13] (Scholars:赵志远) | Wen, Ying (Wen, Ying.) [14] | Mao, Liang (Mao, Liang.) [15] | Mei, Shujiang (Mei, Shujiang.) [16]

Indexed by:

EI SCIE

Abstract:

Before herd immunity against Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is achieved by mass vaccination, science-based guidelines for non-pharmaceutical interventions are urgently needed to reopen megacities. This study integrated massive mobile phone tracking records, census data and building characteristics into a spatially explicit agent-based model to simulate COVID-19 spread among 11.2 million individuals living in Shenzhen City, China. After validation by local epidemiological observations, the model was used to assess the probability of COVID-19 resurgence if sporadic cases occurred in a fully reopened city. Combined scenarios of three critical non-pharmaceutical interventions (contact tracing, mask wearing and prompt testing) were assessed at various levels of public compliance. Our results show a greater than 50% chance of disease resurgence if the city reopened without contact tracing. However, tracing household contacts, in combination with mandatory mask use and prompt testing, could suppress the probability of resurgence under 5% within four weeks. If household contact tracing could be expanded to work/class group members, the COVID resurgence could be avoided if 80% of the population wear facemasks and 40% comply with prompt testing. Our assessment, including modelling for different scenarios, helps public health practitioners tailor interventions within Shenzhen City and other world megacities under a variety of suppression timelines, risk tolerance, healthcare capacity and public compliance.

Keyword:

agent-based model contact tracing COVID-19 facemask mobile phone data testing

Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Yin, Ling]Chinese Acad Sci, Shenzhen Inst Adv Technol, Shenzhen 518055, Guangdong, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Zhang, Hao]Chinese Acad Sci, Shenzhen Inst Adv Technol, Shenzhen 518055, Guangdong, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Liu, Kang]Chinese Acad Sci, Shenzhen Inst Adv Technol, Shenzhen 518055, Guangdong, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Li, Ye]Chinese Acad Sci, Shenzhen Inst Adv Technol, Shenzhen 518055, Guangdong, Peoples R China
  • [ 5 ] [Ning, Li]Chinese Acad Sci, Shenzhen Inst Adv Technol, Shenzhen 518055, Guangdong, Peoples R China
  • [ 6 ] [Wei, Yanjie]Chinese Acad Sci, Shenzhen Inst Adv Technol, Shenzhen 518055, Guangdong, Peoples R China
  • [ 7 ] [Zhang, Hao]Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
  • [ 8 ] [Liu, Kang]Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
  • [ 9 ] [Li, Yuan]Shenzhen Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Shenzhen 518055, Guangdong, Peoples R China
  • [ 10 ] [Tang, Xiujuan]Shenzhen Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Shenzhen 518055, Guangdong, Peoples R China
  • [ 11 ] [Wen, Ying]Shenzhen Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Shenzhen 518055, Guangdong, Peoples R China
  • [ 12 ] [Mei, Shujiang]Shenzhen Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Shenzhen 518055, Guangdong, Peoples R China
  • [ 13 ] [Chen, Tianmu]Xiamen Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, State Key Lab Mol Vaccinol & Mol Diagnost, Xiamen 361102, Fujian, Peoples R China
  • [ 14 ] [Luo, Wei]Natl Univ Singapore, Geog Dept, AS2-03-01,1 Arts Link, Singapore 20301, Singapore
  • [ 15 ] [Lai, Shengjie]Univ Southampton, Sch Geog & Environm Sci, Southampton SO17 1BJ, Hants, England
  • [ 16 ] [Feng, Shengzhong]Natl Supercomp Ctr Shenzhen, Shenzhen 518055, Guangdong, Peoples R China
  • [ 17 ] [Zhao, Zhiyuan]Fuzhou Univ, Acad Digital China Fujian, Fuzhou 350108, Fujian, Peoples R China
  • [ 18 ] [Mao, Liang]Univ Florida, Dept Geog, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA

Reprint 's Address:

  • [Yin, Ling]Chinese Acad Sci, Shenzhen Inst Adv Technol, Shenzhen 518055, Guangdong, Peoples R China;;[Mei, Shujiang]Shenzhen Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Shenzhen 518055, Guangdong, Peoples R China;;[Mao, Liang]Univ Florida, Dept Geog, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA

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Source :

JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY INTERFACE

ISSN: 1742-5689

Year: 2021

Issue: 181

Volume: 18

4 . 2 9 3

JCR@2021

3 . 7 0 0

JCR@2023

ESI Discipline: MULTIDISCIPLINARY;

ESI HC Threshold:186

JCR Journal Grade:2

CAS Journal Grade:2

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 25

SCOPUS Cited Count: 29

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 3

Online/Total:1193/10821277
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