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author:

Zhang, Y. (Zhang, Y..) [1] | Wu, S. (Wu, S..) [2] | Zhao, Z. (Zhao, Z..) [3] | Yang, X. (Yang, X..) [4] | Fang, Z. (Fang, Z..) [5]

Indexed by:

Scopus

Abstract:

Predicting urban crowd flow spatial distributions plays a critical role in optimizing urban public safety and traffic congestion management. The spatial dependency between regions and the temporal dynamics of the local crowd flow are two important features in urban crowd flow prediction. However, few studies considered geographic characteristic in terms of spatial features. To fill this gap, we propose an urban crowd flow prediction model integrating geographic characteristics (FPM-geo). First, three geographic characteristics, proximity, functional similarity, and road network connectivity, are fused by a residual multigraph convolution network to model the spatial dependency relationship. Then, a long short-term memory network is applied as a framework to integrate both the temporal dynamic patterns of local crowd flow and the spatial dependency between regions. A 4-day mobile phone dataset validates the effectiveness of the proposed method by comparing it with several widely used approaches. The result shows that the root mean square error decreases by 15.37% compared with those of the typical models with the prediction interval at the 15-min level. The prediction error increases with the crowd flow size in a local area. Moreover, the error reaches the top of the morning peak and the evening peak and slopes down to the bottom at night. © 2023, The Author(s).

Keyword:

Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Zhang, Y.]Academy of Digital China (Fujian), Fuzhou University, Fuzhou, China
  • [ 2 ] [Zhang, Y.]State Key Laboratory of Information Engineering in Surveying, Mapping and Remote Sensing, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
  • [ 3 ] [Wu, S.]Academy of Digital China (Fujian), Fuzhou University, Fuzhou, China
  • [ 4 ] [Wu, S.]Key Laboratory of Spatial Data Mining &Information Sharing of Ministry of Education, Fuzhou, China
  • [ 5 ] [Wu, S.]Ministry of Education Fujian Collaborative Innovation Center for Big Data Applications in Governments, Fuzhou, China
  • [ 6 ] [Wu, S.]The Digital Economy Alliance of Fujian, Fuzhou, China
  • [ 7 ] [Zhao, Z.]Academy of Digital China (Fujian), Fuzhou University, Fuzhou, China
  • [ 8 ] [Zhao, Z.]Key Laboratory of Spatial Data Mining &Information Sharing of Ministry of Education, Fuzhou, China
  • [ 9 ] [Zhao, Z.]Ministry of Education Fujian Collaborative Innovation Center for Big Data Applications in Governments, Fuzhou, China
  • [ 10 ] [Zhao, Z.]The Digital Economy Alliance of Fujian, Fuzhou, China
  • [ 11 ] [Yang, X.]School of Geography and Tourism, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an, China
  • [ 12 ] [Yang, X.]Key Laboratory of Urban Land Resources Monitoring and Simulation, Ministry of Natural Resources, Shenzhen, China
  • [ 13 ] [Fang, Z.]State Key Laboratory of Information Engineering in Surveying, Mapping and Remote Sensing, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China

Reprint 's Address:

  • [Zhao, Z.]Academy of Digital China (Fujian), China

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Source :

Scientific Reports

ISSN: 2045-2322

Year: 2023

Issue: 1

Volume: 13

3 . 8

JCR@2023

3 . 8 0 0

JCR@2023

ESI HC Threshold:42

JCR Journal Grade:1

CAS Journal Grade:2

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count:

SCOPUS Cited Count: 5

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 0

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