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author:

Li, Xin (Li, Xin.) [1] | Chen, Chao (Chen, Chao.) [2] | Hong, Yi-du (Hong, Yi-du.) [3] | Yang, Fu-qiang (Yang, Fu-qiang.) [4] (Scholars:阳富强)

Indexed by:

EI Scopus SCIE

Abstract:

Hazardous chemical accidents pose a severe threat to human and economic activities. To explore the causes and paths of hazardous chemical explosion accidents (HCEAs) in China, a qualitative and quantitative model was proposed in this study. Firstly, 129 accident cases were collected from the official website of the Ministry of Emergency Management of the People's Republic of China, and the accident factors were screened based on association rule (AR). Then, the fault tree (FT) structure of HCEA was developed by the AR, and the qualitative model was transformed into a quantitative Bayesian network (BN) model. Finally, the accident path, the importance size of the basic events, and the sensitivity of the direct cause of the accident were uncovered based on the BN model. The results show that improper temperature control due to operating procedures is the most likely route to accidents. Among the basic events, process management and operating procedures issues ranked the first in importance, with the most significant impact on HCEA. The sensitivity of improper temperature control far exceeds other direct causes and is most likely to induce accidents directly. According to the study results, some feasible measures are put forward to improve the safety management of hazardous chemical production.

Keyword:

Association rule Bayesian network Explosion accidents Fault tree Hazardous chemical

Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Li, Xin]Fuzhou Univ, Coll Environm & Safety Engn, 2 Xueyuan Rd,Univ Town, Fuzhou 350116, Fujian, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Hong, Yi-du]Fuzhou Univ, Coll Environm & Safety Engn, 2 Xueyuan Rd,Univ Town, Fuzhou 350116, Fujian, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Yang, Fu-qiang]Fuzhou Univ, Coll Environm & Safety Engn, 2 Xueyuan Rd,Univ Town, Fuzhou 350116, Fujian, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Chen, Chao]Southwest Petr Univ, Sch Petr Engn, Chengdu 610500, Peoples R China

Reprint 's Address:

  • 阳富强

    [Yang, Fu-qiang]Fuzhou Univ, Coll Environm & Safety Engn, 2 Xueyuan Rd,Univ Town, Fuzhou 350116, Fujian, Peoples R China

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Source :

RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY

ISSN: 0951-8320

Year: 2023

Volume: 233

9 . 4

JCR@2023

9 . 4 0 0

JCR@2023

ESI Discipline: ENGINEERING;

ESI HC Threshold:35

JCR Journal Grade:1

CAS Journal Grade:1

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 22

SCOPUS Cited Count: 24

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 2

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