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author:

Zhu, Hansong (Zhu, Hansong.) [1] | Chen, Si (Chen, Si.) [2] | Liang, Rui (Liang, Rui.) [3] | Feng, Yulin (Feng, Yulin.) [4] | Joldosh, Aynur (Joldosh, Aynur.) [5] | Xie, Zhonghang (Xie, Zhonghang.) [6] | Chen, Guangmin (Chen, Guangmin.) [7] | Li, Lingfang (Li, Lingfang.) [8] | Chen, Kaizhi (Chen, Kaizhi.) [9] (Scholars:陈开志) | Fang, Yuanyuan (Fang, Yuanyuan.) [10] | Ou, Jianming (Ou, Jianming.) [11]

Indexed by:

Scopus SCIE

Abstract:

BackgroundThis study adopted complete meteorological indicators, including eight items, to explore their impact on hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in Fuzhou, and predict the incidence of HFMD through the long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network algorithm of artificial intelligence.MethodA distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was used to analyse the influence of meteorological factors on HFMD in Fuzhou from 2010 to 2021. Then, the numbers of HFMD cases in 2019, 2020 and 2021 were predicted using the LSTM model through multifactor single-step and multistep rolling methods. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE) were used to evaluate the accuracy of the model predictions.ResultsOverall, the effect of daily precipitation on HFMD was not significant. Low (4 hPa) and high (>= 21 hPa) daily air pressure difference (PRSD) and low (< 7 degrees C) and high (> 12 degrees C) daily air temperature difference (TEMD) were risk factors for HFMD. The RMSE, MAE, MAPE and SMAPE of using the weekly multifactor data to predict the cases of HFMD on the following day, from 2019 to 2021, were lower than those of using the daily multifactor data to predict the cases of HFMD on the following day. In particular, the RMSE, MAE, MAPE and SMAPE of using weekly multifactor data to predict the following week's daily average cases of HFMD were much lower, and similar results were also found in urban and rural areas, which indicating that this approach was more accurate.ConclusionThis study's LSTM models combined with meteorological factors (excluding PRE) can be used to accurately predict HFMD in Fuzhou, especially the method of predicting the daily average cases of HFMD in the following week using weekly multifactor data.

Keyword:

Air temperature DLNM HFMD LSTM Meteorological Relative humidity

Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Zhu, Hansong]Fujian Med Univ, Practice Base Sch Publ Hlth, Fujian Prov Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Fujian Prov Key Lab Zoonosis Res, Fuzhou 350012, Fujian, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Xie, Zhonghang]Fujian Med Univ, Practice Base Sch Publ Hlth, Fujian Prov Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Fujian Prov Key Lab Zoonosis Res, Fuzhou 350012, Fujian, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Chen, Guangmin]Fujian Med Univ, Practice Base Sch Publ Hlth, Fujian Prov Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Fujian Prov Key Lab Zoonosis Res, Fuzhou 350012, Fujian, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Li, Lingfang]Fujian Med Univ, Practice Base Sch Publ Hlth, Fujian Prov Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Fujian Prov Key Lab Zoonosis Res, Fuzhou 350012, Fujian, Peoples R China
  • [ 5 ] [Ou, Jianming]Fujian Med Univ, Practice Base Sch Publ Hlth, Fujian Prov Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Fujian Prov Key Lab Zoonosis Res, Fuzhou 350012, Fujian, Peoples R China
  • [ 6 ] [Chen, Si]Fujian Climate Ctr, Fuzhou 350028, Fujian, Peoples R China
  • [ 7 ] [Liang, Rui]Zhengzhou Univ, Affiliated Hosp 1, Dept Nutr, Zhengzhou 450052, Henan, Peoples R China
  • [ 8 ] [Feng, Yulin]Fujian Med Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Fuzhou 350108, Fujian, Peoples R China
  • [ 9 ] [Joldosh, Aynur]Xiamen Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Xiamen 361005, Fujian, Peoples R China
  • [ 10 ] [Chen, Kaizhi]Fuzhou Univ, Coll Comp & Data Sci, Fuzhou 350108, Fujian, Peoples R China
  • [ 11 ] [Fang, Yuanyuan]Fujian Childrens Hosp, Dept Pediat Surg, Fuzhou 350001, Fujian, Peoples R China

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Source :

BMC INFECTIOUS DISEASES

ISSN: 1471-2334

Year: 2023

Issue: 1

Volume: 23

3 . 4

JCR@2023

3 . 4 0 0

JCR@2023

ESI Discipline: IMMUNOLOGY;

ESI HC Threshold:32

JCR Journal Grade:2

CAS Journal Grade:3

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 1

SCOPUS Cited Count: 2

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 1

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