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author:

Li, Chong (Li, Chong.) [1] | Xie, Xiuping (Xie, Xiuping.) [2]

Indexed by:

SCIE

Abstract:

The time-lag period is usually assumed to be a fixed value in most multivariate grey prediction models. This assumption makes it hard to describe the real characteristics of the analyzed system. This paper proposes a new modeling method based on a generalized time-delay function, which considers both the dynamics and differences of time series. Then a new model DGM(1,N,tau(i)) is designed and compared with existing grey prediction models. The main advantage of the model DGM (1,N ,tau(i)) is that it describes the additive effect of time-delay variables and offers a new dynamic adjustment method to predict this effect. Another advantage is the generality of model DGM(1,N,tau(i)): it can be extended to several other widely used grey models, such as DGM(1,N), DDGM (1,N) and DDGMD(1,N). Some improvements of the classic grey incidence degree calculation and a new reverse flip sequence operator are provided to reduce the negative effect of subjective modeling factor selection. These optimization methods improve the stability of predictions. A case study of China 's agricultural output forecast is provided to test the new model. It considers several available sample scenarios and includes all situations that result from the subjective judgment of modeling factors. Results show that the new model can model the complex effect of time delays, and it also has higher prediction accuracy than the other three classic models.

Keyword:

Dynamic Adjustment Generalized Model Grey Prediction Model Time Delays

Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Li, Chong]Fuzhou Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Fuzhou 350108, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Xie, Xiuping]Fuzhou Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Fuzhou 350108, Peoples R China

Reprint 's Address:

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Source :

JOURNAL OF GREY SYSTEM

ISSN: 0957-3720

Year: 2020

Issue: 2

Volume: 32

Page: 50-76

1 . 9 1 2

JCR@2020

1 . 0 0 0

JCR@2023

ESI Discipline: MATHEMATICS;

ESI HC Threshold:50

JCR Journal Grade:3

CAS Journal Grade:4

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 2

SCOPUS Cited Count:

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 0

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