The　change　of　coastal　wetland　vulnerability　affects　the　ecological　environment　and　the　economic　development　of　the　estuary　area.　In　the　past,　most　of　the　assessment　studies　on　the　vulnerability　of　coastal　ecosystems　stayed　in　static　qualitative　research,　lacking　predictability,　and　the　qualitative　and　quantitative　relationship　was　not　objective　enough.　In　this　study,　the　“Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence”　model　and　the　Intergovernmental　Panel　on　Climate　Change　vulnerability　definition　were　used　to　analyze　the　main　impact　of　sea　level　rise　caused　by　climate　change　on　coastal　wetland　ecosystem　in　Minjiang　River　Estuary.　The　results　show　that:　(1)　With　the　increase　of　time　and　carbon　emission,　the　area　of　high　vulnerability　and　the　higher　vulnerability　increased　continuously,　and　the　area　of　low　vulnerability　and　the　lower　vulnerability　decreased.　(2)　The　eastern　and　northeastern　part　of　the　Culu　Island　in　the　Minjiang　River　Estuary　of　Fujian　Province　and　the　eastern　coastal　wetland　of　Meihua　Town　in　Changle　District　are　areas　with　high　vulnerability　risk.　The　area　of　high　vulnerability　area　of　coastal　wetland　under　high　emission　scenario　is　wider　than　that　under　low　emission　scenario.　(3)　Under　different　sea　level　rise　scenarios,　elevation　has　the　greatest　impact　on　the　vulnerability　of　coastal　wetlands,　and　slope　has　less　impact.　The　impact　of　sea　level　rise　caused　by　climate　change　on　the　coastal　wetland　ecosystem　in　the　Minjiang　River　Estuary　is　mainly　manifested　in　the　sea　level　rise,　which　changes　the　habitat　elevation　and　daily　flooding　time　of　coastal　wetlands,　and　then　affects　the　survival　and　distribution　of　coastal　wetland　ecosystems.　©　2023,　Chinese　Society　for　Oceanography　and　Springer-Verlag　GmbH　Germany,　part　of　Springer　Nature.