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author:

Su, Yu (Su, Yu.) [1] | Yang, Mingcheng (Yang, Mingcheng.) [2] | Yuan, Xiongjun (Yuan, Xiongjun.) [3] | Lian, Ke (Lian, Ke.) [4]

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EI

Abstract:

In the case of emergencies, it is difficult to subjectively estimate the demand for specific types of materials. The uncertainty of demand will affect the distribution of materials and the implementation of relief work, resulting in serious casualties and economic losses. This paper aims to improve the prediction accuracy of the demand for emergency supplies and provide data support for the allocation strategy. Firstly, based on data-driven thinking, the projected number of people in demand was obtained by LSTM neural network. Then, we defined the allocation lead time according to the demand characteristics of different phases of emergency events and analyzed the relationship between the amount of allocation and the number of people in demand. Following that, combined with safety stock theory, the LSTM-Cubic model for emergency supplies was established to forecast the demand for emergency supplies. Finally, the validity of the proposed model was verified by using the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan at the end of 2019 as a case study. The results show that the proposed LSTM-Cubic model has higher accuracy compared with other models, and is applicable to the prediction of sudden demand at the early stage of an emergency. © 11th International Symposium on Project Management, ISPM 2023. All rights reserved.

Keyword:

COVID-19 Forecasting Long short-term memory Losses Project management

Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Su, Yu]College of Ocean, Fuzhou University, Quanzhou; 362251, China
  • [ 2 ] [Yang, Mingcheng]College of Ocean, Fuzhou University, Quanzhou; 362251, China
  • [ 3 ] [Yuan, Xiongjun]College of Ocean, Fuzhou University, Quanzhou; 362251, China
  • [ 4 ] [Lian, Ke]College of Ocean, Fuzhou University, Quanzhou; 362251, China

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Year: 2023

Volume: 3

Page: 1750-1758

Language: English

Cited Count:

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ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

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30 Days PV: 3

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