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author:

Chen, K. (Chen, K..) [1] | Wei, F. (Wei, F..) [2] | Zhang, X. (Zhang, X..) [3] | Jin, H. (Jin, H..) [4] | Wang, Z. (Wang, Z..) [5] | Zuo, Y. (Zuo, Y..) [6] | Fan, K. (Fan, K..) [7]

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ESCI Scopus CSCD

Abstract:

The complex interactions were performed among non-pharmaceutical interventions, vaccinations, and hosts for all epidemics in mainland China during the spread of COVID-19. Specially, the small-scale epidemic in the city described by SVEIR model was less found in the current studies. The SVEIR model with control was established to analyze the dynamical and epidemiological features of two epidemics in Jinzhou City led by Omicron variants before and after Twenty Measures. In this study, the total population (N) of Jinzhou City was divided into five compartments: the susceptible (S), the vaccinated (V), the exposed (E), the infected (I), and the recovered (R). By surveillance data and the SVEIR model, three methods (maximum likelihood method, exponential growth rate method, next generation matrix method) were governed to estimate basic reproduction number, and the results showed that an increasing tendency of basic reproduction number from Omicron BA.5.2 to Omicron BA.2.12.1. Meanwhile, the effective reproduction number for two epidemics were investigated by surveillance data, and the results showed that Jinzhou wave 1 reached the peak on November 1 and was controlled 7 days later, and that Jinzhou wave 2 reached the peak on November 28 and was controlled 5 days later. Moreover, the impacts of non-pharmaceutical interventions (awareness delay, peak delay, control intensity) were discussed extensively, the variations of infection scales for Omicron variant and EG.5 variant were also discussed. Furthermore, the investigations on peaks and infection scales for two epidemics in dynamic zero-COVID policy were operated by the SVEIR model with control. The investigations on public medical requirements of Jinzhou City and Liaoning Province were analyzed by using SVEIR model without control, which provided a possible perspective on variant evolution in the future. © 2024 The Authors

Keyword:

Control strategy COVID-19 SVEIR model Twenty measures Variant evolution

Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Chen K.]School of Mathematics and Statistics, Fuzhou University, Fujian, Fuzhou, 350116, China
  • [ 2 ] [Wei F.]School of Mathematics and Statistics, Fuzhou University, Fujian, Fuzhou, 350116, China
  • [ 3 ] [Wei F.]Key Laboratory of Operations Research and Control of Universities in Fujian, Fuzhou University, Fujian, Fuzhou, 350116, China
  • [ 4 ] [Wei F.]Center for Applied Mathematics of Fujian Province, Fuzhou University, Fujian, Fuzhou, 350116, China
  • [ 5 ] [Zhang X.]Jinzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Liaoning, Jinzhou, 121000, China
  • [ 6 ] [Jin H.]Jinzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Liaoning, Jinzhou, 121000, China
  • [ 7 ] [Wang Z.]School of Mathematics and Statistics, Fuzhou University, Fujian, Fuzhou, 350116, China
  • [ 8 ] [Zuo Y.]Jinzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Liaoning, Jinzhou, 121000, China
  • [ 9 ] [Fan K.]Jinzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Liaoning, Jinzhou, 121000, China

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Source :

Infectious Disease Modelling

ISSN: 2468-0427

Year: 2024

Issue: 3

Volume: 9

Page: 689-700

3 . 0 0 0

JCR@2023

CAS Journal Grade:1

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count:

SCOPUS Cited Count: 4

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 6

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