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The broken window theory is one of the typical environmental criminology theories that have attracted considerable academic attention internationally, but lacks validation in the Chinese context. Taking the central urban area of Shanghai as an example, we use deep learning approaches, including object detection and image regression, to identify disordered physical objects and overall perception of disorder from street view images. We then examine the impact of physical disorder on theft crime and uncover its moderating effect in the process by which 3D built environmental features (i.e., density, diversity, and design) influence theft crime. The results show that, first, the spatial pattern of theft crime exhibits a central- high, peripheral- low distribution with multiple hotspots. The spatial distribution of multiple disordered physical objects and the overall perception of disorder show both similarities and differences. Garbage piles and perception of untidiness show a decreasing and then increasing trend from the center to the periphery, street encroachment is high in the city center, graffiti and small advertisements are relatively dispersed, while some of the urban villages and shantytowns face the dilemma of multiple disturbances stacked on top of each other. Second, apart from street encroachment, all other physical disorder phenomena have a significant and positive direct impact on theft crime. The most prominent factor among them is the overall perception of untidiness, whose magnitude of influence is second only to walkability among all independent variables and covariates, and comparable to the impact of the size of ambient population. Third, physical disorder plays mediating roles in enhancing, diminishing, and interfering with the impact of 3D built environment features on theft crime. Increasing physical disorder would enhance the criminogenic effects of POI density, store density, street network density, streetscape diversity, and the sense of enclosure provided by fences, weaken the positive impact of Points of Interest (POI) diversity on theft, and reverse the direction of the relationship between environmental factors, such as sky openness and green view ratio of shrub, and theft from negative to positive. The study provides evidence that enhancing the policy related to environmental maintenance and routine management offers a practical and cost-effective way to inhibit the occurrence of theft crime. © 2024 Science Press. All rights reserved.
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Source :
地理研究
ISSN: 1000-0585
Year: 2024
Issue: 6
Volume: 43
Page: 1539-1555
Cited Count:
SCOPUS Cited Count: 1
ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All
WanFang Cited Count:
Chinese Cited Count:
30 Days PV: 1
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