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author:

Liu, Han (Liu, Han.) [1] | Wang, Lijun (Wang, Lijun.) [2] | Zhuo, Xingxuan (Zhuo, Xingxuan.) [3] (Scholars:卓杏轩)

Indexed by:

SSCI

Abstract:

The impact of financial conditions on Chinese macroeconomic activities has recently received considerable attention. This paper utilizes a constructed Chinese financial conditions index (FCI) to appraise the role of financial conditions in Chinese growth at risk, and further traces the influencing factors of tail risks of macroeconomic activities. The findings reveal that financial conditions may lead to an increase in future tail risks for macroeconomic activities, and financial conditions are associated more with downside risks than with upside potential. Moreover, the extension degree of financial conditions in relation to the tail risks of macroeconomic activities displays time-varying and heterogeneous characteristics. In particular, financial conditions have a more pronounced effect on the tail risks of investment growth. Additionally, this paper provides direct evidence from a financial perspective, suggesting that M2 is a common factor of the tail risks of macroeconomic activities, and treasury yields play a crucial role in tail risks related to consumption growth. Simultaneously, the real effective exchange rate of the Renminbi Yuan emerges as a vital factor in tail risks regarding import and export growth. Our results provide valuable insights for the government in addressing macroeconomic risks and formulating relevant policies.

Keyword:

Deep GaR Financial conditions Generalized variance decompositions Macroeconomic activities Tail risk

Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Liu, Han]Jilin Univ, Ctr Quantitat Econ, 2699 Qianjin St, Changchun 130012, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Liu, Han]Jilin Univ, Business & Management Sch, 2699 Qianjin Ave, Changchun 130012, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Wang, Lijun]Jilin Univ, Business & Management Sch, 2699 Qianjin Ave, Changchun 130012, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Zhuo, Xingxuan]Fuzhou Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Xue Yuan Rd 2, Fuzhou 350108, Peoples R China

Reprint 's Address:

  • 卓杏轩

    [Zhuo, Xingxuan]Fuzhou Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Xue Yuan Rd 2, Fuzhou 350108, Peoples R China

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Source :

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND POLICY

ISSN: 0313-5926

Year: 2024

Volume: 85

Page: 1-14

7 . 9 0 0

JCR@2023

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count:

SCOPUS Cited Count:

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 1

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