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author:

Zhao, Yibo (Zhao, Yibo.) [1] | Cheng, Shifen (Cheng, Shifen.) [2] | Gao, Song (Gao, Song.) [3] | Wang, Peixiao (Wang, Peixiao.) [4] | Lu, Feng (Lu, Feng.) [5]

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EI

Abstract:

The accurate prediction of origin-destination (OD) flows is essential for advancing sustainable urban mobility and supporting resilient urban planning. However, the inherent heterogeneity of mobility patterns results in complex geographic unit relations, diverse spatial organizational structures, and the long-tailed effect on OD flow distribution. This study proposes a novel OD flow prediction method based on graph-based deep learning (named as HMCG-LGBM). Specifically, 1) a modularity-based graph reconstruction strategy is presented for geographic unit relation augmentation by eliminating weak connections; 2) the heterogeneous spatial organization of OD flows is captured by combining the community detection approach and graph attention mechanism with the introduction of socio-economic and spatial features; and 3) a weighted loss function with distribution smoothing paradigm is developed to enhance the prediction for low-probability mobility events, addressing the challenges posed by long-tailed distributions. Extensive experiments conducted on real-world datasets show that the predictive performance of the proposed method is significantly improved, with the RMSE and MAE reduced from the baselines by 11.1%–33.3% and 14.1%–22.2%, respectively. The results also demonstrate the robustness of the proposed method for dealing with imbalanced OD flow distributions, providing valuable insights for spatial interaction predictive modeling in the context of sustainable urban systems. © 2024 Elsevier Ltd

Keyword:

Prediction models

Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Zhao, Yibo]State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing; 100101, China
  • [ 2 ] [Zhao, Yibo]University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing; 100049, China
  • [ 3 ] [Zhao, Yibo]Geospatial Data Science Lab, Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison; WI; 53706, United States
  • [ 4 ] [Cheng, Shifen]State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing; 100101, China
  • [ 5 ] [Cheng, Shifen]University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing; 100049, China
  • [ 6 ] [Gao, Song]Geospatial Data Science Lab, Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison; WI; 53706, United States
  • [ 7 ] [Wang, Peixiao]State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing; 100101, China
  • [ 8 ] [Wang, Peixiao]University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing; 100049, China
  • [ 9 ] [Lu, Feng]State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing; 100101, China
  • [ 10 ] [Lu, Feng]University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing; 100049, China
  • [ 11 ] [Lu, Feng]The Academy of Digital China, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou, China
  • [ 12 ] [Lu, Feng]Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing; 210023, China

Reprint 's Address:

  • [cheng, shifen]state key laboratory of resources and environmental information system, institute of geographic sciences and natural resources research, cas, beijing; 100101, china;;[cheng, shifen]university of chinese academy of sciences, beijing; 100049, china;;

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Source :

Sustainable Cities and Society

ISSN: 2210-6707

Year: 2025

Volume: 118

1 0 . 5 0 0

JCR@2023

CAS Journal Grade:1

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count:

SCOPUS Cited Count: 1

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 0

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