The　accurate　prediction　of　ground　surface　settlement　remains　a　crucial　undertaking　in　shield　tunnelling,　particularly　for　tunnels　with　super　large　diameters.　Instead　of　employing　conventional　deterministic　analysis,　this　study　employed　3D　random　finite　element　method　(RFEM)　to　probabilistically　investigate　the　longitudinal　ground　surface　settlement　induced　by　super　large　diameter　shield　tunneling.　Through　large　quantities　of　numerical　simulations,　a　new　modified　Logistic　function　with　parameters　of　maximum　ground　settlement　Smax,　settlement　upon　face　arrival　S0,　and　settlement　speed　during　face　passage　v　was　proposed　to　represent　the　longitudinal　ground　surface　settlement　curves.　The　probabilistic　distribution　of　longitudinal　ground　settlement　was　transformed　into　a　multivariate　Gaussian　distribution　of　Smax,　S0,　and　v.　A　randomness　transfer　coefficient　η　was　innovatively　proposed　to　evaluate　the　effects　of　randomness　transferred　from　modulus　random　field　to　the　ground　settlements.　It　was　found　that　the　mean　values　of　Smax,　S0,　and　v　were　rarely　affected　by　random　field　statistics.　The　randomness　transferring　coefficient　η　was　determined　by　the　vertical　and　horizontal　scales　of　fluctuation　(δv　and　δh).　The　correlation　coefficients　between　Smax,　S0,　and　v　were　only　sensitive　to　δh.　©　2025　Elsevier　Ltd