Analyzing　the　spatio-temporal　evolution　of　urban　ecological　quality　and　its　driving　factors　is　crucial　for　regional　environmental　protection　and　sustainable　development.　This　paper　presents　a　robust　analytical　framework　for　urban　ecological　quality　evaluation　based　on　multi-temporal　Landsat　satellite　remote　sensing　imagery　and　auxiliary　data.　The　framework　integrates　the　remote　sensing　ecological　index　(RSEI)　with　Theil-Sen　estimation,　Mann-Kendall　trend　test,　Hurst　index,　optimal　parameters-based　geographical　detectors　(OPGD),　and　multi-scale　geographically　weighted　regression　(MGWR).　To　verify　its　applicability　and　effectiveness　in　the　context　of　rapid　urbanization,　this　framework　was　used　to　investigate　ecological　quality　changes　and　influencing　factors　in　Dongguan　city　over　the　past　20　years.　The　results　show　that　Dongguan̓s　ecological　environment　has　undergone　a　complex　dynamic　process　of　deterioration-improvement-re-deterioration　during　the　20-year　period.　Furthermore,　forward-looking　predictive　analysis　identified　key　areas　of　future　ecological　change　and　regions　facing　severe　ecological　risks　as　well　as　those　with　significant　improvement　potential.　This　comprehensive　analysis　provides　scientific　support　for　ecological　management　in　Dongguan　and　offers　valuable　insights　for　similar　regions　undergoing　rapid　urbanization.　©　2025　SinoMaps　Press.　All　rights　reserved.