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author:

Chen, Libo (Chen, Libo.) [1]

Indexed by:

EI

Abstract:

This study investigates the application of ordinal regression models in seismic fragility curve modeling, providing a flexible alternative to the traditional log-normal distribution function. A comparative analysis is conducted among various ordinal regression approaches, including the traditional Cumulative model as well as alternative methods like Sequential and Adjacent Category models, along with extensions that account for category-specific effects and heteroscedasticity. These models are applied to bridge damage data from the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, using both frequentist and Bayesian inference methods. Model diagnostics, including surrogate residuals, are performed to assess model fit and performance. A total of eleven models are examined, from basic forms to those incorporating category-specific effects and variance heterogeneity. The Sequential model with category-specific effects, rigorously evaluated using leave-one-out cross-validation, outperforms the traditional Cumulative probit model. The findings highlight significant differences in the predicted damage probabilities, emphasizing the potential of more flexible fragility curve modeling techniques to improve seismic risk assessments. This study underscores the importance of ongoing evaluation and refinement of modeling techniques to enhance the predictive accuracy and applicability of seismic fragility models in performance-based earthquake engineering. © 2025 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Keyword:

Distribution functions Earthquake effects Earthquake engineering Logistic regression Normal distribution Risk assessment Seismic response

Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Chen, Libo]College of Civil Engineering, Fuzhou University, Fujian, Fuzhou, China

Reprint 's Address:

  • [chen, libo]college of civil engineering, fuzhou university, fujian, fuzhou, china

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Source :

Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics

ISSN: 0098-8847

Year: 2025

Issue: 6

Volume: 54

Page: 1717-1736

4 . 3 0 0

JCR@2023

CAS Journal Grade:2

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count:

SCOPUS Cited Count:

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 1

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