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author:

Lin, Minqing (Lin, Minqing.) [1] | Liu, Shi Qiang (Liu, Shi Qiang.) [2] | Luo, Kai (Luo, Kai.) [3] | Zhu, Lijun (Zhu, Lijun.) [4]

Indexed by:

EI Scopus SCIE

Abstract:

Long-term Energy Contracts (LECs) are formal agreements signed for several years by energy sellers and buyers at a guaranteed purchase price. However, unexpected events (e.g., pandemics, trade disputes and regional wars) are exacerbating Energy Market Price (EMP) volatility, resulting in psychological biases in gains and losses between energy sellers and buyers and disruptions to the execution of LECs. To ensure the effective execution of LECs, we propose a Prospect-Theory Evolutionary Game Model (PTEGM), which characterizes different risk preferences and loss aversions of energy sellers and buyers under EMP volatility through the prospect theory. After deriving EMP ranges of cooperation and non-cooperation (i.e., significant reference values for energy price terms in LECs) by replicator dynamic equations, the cooperation evolution of LECs can be investigated. Extensive numerical experiments are conducted to simulate the cooperation evolution of LECs under EMP volatility. Research results reveal nonlinear relationships between EMP volatility and cooperation and highlight that EMP volatility does not necessarily cause non-cooperation of LECs. EMP ranges of cooperation and non-cooperation can be measured as energy price terms in LECs to improve energy sustainability, because the enactment of energy price terms considering psychological factors can mitigate energy supply disruptions caused by EMP volatility.

Keyword:

Energy market price Energy policy design Energy supply security Long-term energy contract Prospect-theory evolutionary game

Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Lin, Minqing]Fuzhou Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Fuzhou, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Liu, Shi Qiang]Fuzhou Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Fuzhou, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Luo, Kai]Univ Paris Saclay, IHU PROMETHEUS, Paris, France
  • [ 4 ] [Zhu, Lijun]North Minzu Univ, Sch Math & Informat Sci, Yinchuan, Peoples R China

Reprint 's Address:

  • 刘仕强

    [Liu, Shi Qiang]Fuzhou Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Fuzhou, Peoples R China

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Source :

ENERGY

ISSN: 0360-5442

Year: 2025

Volume: 330

9 . 0 0 0

JCR@2023

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count:

SCOPUS Cited Count:

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 0

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