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author:

He, Ying (He, Ying.) [1] | Lin, Fan (Lin, Fan.) [2] | Zheng, Xin (Zheng, Xin.) [3] | Chen, Qiaobin (Chen, Qiaobin.) [4] | Xiao, Meng (Xiao, Meng.) [5] | Lin, Xiaoting (Lin, Xiaoting.) [6] | Huang, Hongbiao (Huang, Hongbiao.) [7]

Indexed by:

SCIE

Abstract:

BackgroundKawasaki disease (KD) is a leading cause of acquired heart disease in children that is treated with intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG). However, 10-20% of cases exhibit IVIG resistance, which increases the risk of coronary complications. Existing predictive models do not integrate multiple machine learning (ML) algorithms or facilitate real-time clinical use. This study presents a region-specific, interpretable ML model for early IVIG resistance prediction in KD.MethodsA retrospective cohort of 463 children diagnosed with KD at Fuzhou University Affiliated Provincial Hospital (2012-2024) was analyzed. Thirteen ML algorithms were evaluated via cross-validation, with performance assessed by AUC and other metrics. Feature importance was determined using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), and risk of bias was evaluated using the Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool.ResultsThe random forest (RF) model demonstrated the highest predictive performance (AUC = 0.78). After feature selection based on SHAP values, a final interpretable RF model incorporating 10 key features was developed, and a web-based tool integrating the Youden index (16.9%) was deployed for real-time risk estimation.ConclusionThis region-specific, interpretable ML model (https://milailai.shinyapps.io/data1/) is a practical tool for early risk stratification and personalized treatment of IVIG resistance in KD.

Keyword:

Immunoglobulins Internet-based intervention Intravenous Kawasaki disease Machine learning Prognosis

Community:

  • [ 1 ] [He, Ying]Fuzhou Univ, Fujian Prov Hosp, Dept Pediat, Affiliated Prov Hosp, Fuzhou 350001, Fujian, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Lin, Fan]Fuzhou Univ, Fujian Prov Hosp, Dept Pediat, Affiliated Prov Hosp, Fuzhou 350001, Fujian, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Zheng, Xin]Fuzhou Univ, Fujian Prov Hosp, Dept Pediat, Affiliated Prov Hosp, Fuzhou 350001, Fujian, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Chen, Qiaobin]Fuzhou Univ, Fujian Prov Hosp, Dept Pediat, Affiliated Prov Hosp, Fuzhou 350001, Fujian, Peoples R China
  • [ 5 ] [Xiao, Meng]Fuzhou Univ, Fujian Prov Hosp, Dept Pediat, Affiliated Prov Hosp, Fuzhou 350001, Fujian, Peoples R China
  • [ 6 ] [Lin, Xiaoting]Fuzhou Univ, Fujian Prov Hosp, Dept Pediat, Affiliated Prov Hosp, Fuzhou 350001, Fujian, Peoples R China
  • [ 7 ] [Huang, Hongbiao]Fuzhou Univ, Fujian Prov Hosp, Dept Pediat, Affiliated Prov Hosp, Fuzhou 350001, Fujian, Peoples R China

Reprint 's Address:

  • [Huang, Hongbiao]Fuzhou Univ, Fujian Prov Hosp, Dept Pediat, Affiliated Prov Hosp, Fuzhou 350001, Fujian, Peoples R China

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Source :

ITALIAN JOURNAL OF PEDIATRICS

ISSN: 1720-8424

Year: 2025

Issue: 1

Volume: 51

3 . 2 0 0

JCR@2023

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ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 0

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