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Abstract:
The southeast mountainous and hilly areas are characterized by the occurrence of landslide disasters with a high frequency and suddenness due to their unique climatic conditions and geological environment. However, the current methods for evaluating landslide susceptibility mainly focus on static factors and do not adequately capture the dynamic characteristics of landslides in the southeastern mountainous region. Therefore, it is necessary to incorporate dynamic factors in order to enhance the timeliness of evaluation results. In this paper, Datian County in the mountainous and hilly region of southeast China were selected as the research area, and six evaluation factors including slope, slope aspect, surface fluctuation, stratigraphic lithology, normalized difference vegetation index and average annual rainfall were selected. Information value (IV) model, logistic regression (LR) model and random forest (RF) model were used to model landslide susceptibility, conduct rationality test and accuracy test. The surface deformation rate in the study area was derived using the SBAS-InSAR technique. By integrating the landslide susceptibility zoning results, a dynamic evaluation matrix was constructed to achieve dynamic landslide susceptibility assessment in the study area. The results show that the receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve area under curve(AUC) value of the random forest (RF) model is the largest (0.851), and this method can be used to partition the landslide susceptibility in the southeastern mountainous region. The major findings revealed that among the known landslides, 13 locations exhibited poor stability, 83 locations had moderate stability, and 150 locations were relatively stable. Through the analysis of time-series deformation curves of landslides with poor stability, it was identified that seasonal rainfall was the primary factor affecting landslide stability in the southeast mountainous and hilly areas. © 2025 Institute of Engineering Mechanics (IEM). All rights reserved.
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Source :
Journal of Natural Disasters
ISSN: 1004-4574
Year: 2025
Issue: 2
Volume: 34
Page: 56-65
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ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All
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