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author:

Li, P. (Li, P..) [1] | Tian, L. (Tian, L..) [2] | Tang, Z. (Tang, Z..) [3] | Lin, D. (Lin, D..) [4]

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Abstract:

Safety regulation and short-sighted consumer behaviour during the initial phases of autonomous vehicles (AVs) deployment can contribute to the ‘dark age' of AVs, characterised by slow market growth. This paper examines the diffusion of AVs through encapsulating the bottleneck model and Bass diffusion model within a dynamic framework. Based upon that, we derive the market penetration of AVs and their diffusion rate. Furthermore, we propose and compare the short-term and long-term pricing strategies. Numerical results indicate that, in contrast to the short-term pricing strategy, the diffusion of AVs is significantly faster under the long-term pricing strategy. The long-term pricing strategy can mitigate the negative externalities associated with safety settings by lowering the initial price, thereby balancing safety concerns with the diffusion of AVs. © 2025 Hong Kong Society for Transportation Studies Limited.

Keyword:

Autonomous vehicles Bass diffusion model Bottleneck model pricing strategy

Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Li P.]College of Economics and Management, Fujian Agricultural and Forestry University, Fuzhou, China
  • [ 2 ] [Li P.]School of Economics and Management, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou, China
  • [ 3 ] [Tian L.]School of Business, Guangxi University, Nanning, China
  • [ 4 ] [Tang Z.]School of Business, Guangxi University, Nanning, China
  • [ 5 ] [Lin D.]School of Economics and Management, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou, China

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Source :

Transportmetrica B

ISSN: 2168-0566

Year: 2025

Issue: 1

Volume: 13

3 . 3 0 0

JCR@2023

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ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

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Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 0

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