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Abstract:
This study investigates the dynamic return dependence between China's real estate and financial markets using a quantile coherency framework. Quantile coherency decomposes tail dependence across different frequencies, thereby capturing interdependencies across business cycles. We compare periods before and after two major shocks - the 2015 Stock Market Crash and the COVID-19 pandemic - examining both long-run and short-run dependence to reveal how extreme negative, normal, and positive market conditions reshape inter-sector linkages. To assess systemic importance, we construct quantile coherency networks to measure the overall connectedness structure across market conditions and business cycles and apply an Entropy-Weighted TOPSIS (EW-TOPSIS) method to identify key firms under varying market conditions. Our findings reveal that the 2015 crash intensified systemic co-dependence primarily in extreme negative and positive regimes, whereas the COVID-19 pandemic have stronger effects during normal and positive conditions. By effectively pinpointing systemically important firms, the EW-TOPSIS framework underscores the centrality of the banking sector and highlights the role of the real estate market as a secondary channel, especially during short-term business cycles, thereby offering guidance for targeted risk prevention strategies.
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APPLIED ECONOMICS
ISSN: 0003-6846
Year: 2025
1 . 8 0 0
JCR@2023
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ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All
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30 Days PV: 0
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