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学者姓名：陈力波
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Abstract ：
As an integral part of assessing the seismic performance of structures, the probabilistic seismic demand-intensity relationship has been widely studied. In this study, the phenomenon of heteroscedasticity in probabilistic seismic demand models was systematically investigated. A brief review of the definition, diagnosis, and conventional treatment of heteroscedasticity is presented herein, and based on that, two more generalized methods for both univariate and multivariate cases are proposed. For a typical four-span simply supported girder bridge, a series of nonlinear time history analyses were performed through multiple stripe analysis to determine its seismic demand and intensity, which can be employed as a sample set. For both univariate and multivariate cases, probabilistic seismic demand models were developed based on the two aforementioned methods under the Bayesian regression framework, and the fitted results were compared and analyzed with the conventional models using linear regression approaches. This approach forms the foundation for further developing seismic fragility modeling of both bridge component and system. The results show that in the presence of probabilistic seismic demand considering heteroscedasticity, the patterns of nonconstant variance or covariance can be characterized effectively, and a better-calibrated prediction region than that of homoscedastic models can be provided. Additionally, it offers a more comprehensive pathway for precise seismic fragility analysis. The causes of the heteroscedasticity phenomenon and subsequent solutions are thoroughly discussed. The analysis procedures can be further embedded in seismic risk and resilience assessment, thus providing a more accurate basis for aseismic decision-making.
Keyword ：
Bayesian Bayesian Covariance regression Covariance regression Heteroscedasticity Heteroscedasticity Intensity measure Intensity measure Multiple-stripe analysis Multiple-stripe analysis Probabilistic seismic demand Probabilistic seismic demand Seismic fragility Seismic fragility
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| GB/T 7714 | Chen, Libo . Improved Probabilistic Seismic Demand-Intensity Relationship: Heteroscedastic Approaches [J]. | ASCE-ASME JOURNAL OF RISK AND UNCERTAINTY IN ENGINEERING SYSTEMS PART A-CIVIL ENGINEERING , 2025 , 11 (1) . |
| MLA | Chen, Libo . "Improved Probabilistic Seismic Demand-Intensity Relationship: Heteroscedastic Approaches" . | ASCE-ASME JOURNAL OF RISK AND UNCERTAINTY IN ENGINEERING SYSTEMS PART A-CIVIL ENGINEERING 11 . 1 (2025) . |
| APA | Chen, Libo . Improved Probabilistic Seismic Demand-Intensity Relationship: Heteroscedastic Approaches . | ASCE-ASME JOURNAL OF RISK AND UNCERTAINTY IN ENGINEERING SYSTEMS PART A-CIVIL ENGINEERING , 2025 , 11 (1) . |
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The assessment of the strength of welded Circular Hollow Section (CHS) steel tubular joints is of paramount importance in the safe design of engineered structures. In order to address this core factor, this paper employs Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), a probabilistic machine learning method based on a collected database, with the objective of modelling and predicting the strength of three types of welded CHS steel tubular joints and effectively quantifying their associated uncertainties. This study presents two strength prediction models for welded CHS steel tubular joints: a Single-Output Gaussian Process Regression (SOGPR) model and a Multi-task Gaussian Process Regression (MTGPR) model. The models are evaluated and compared with existing empirical approaches, design guides, non-probabilistic machine learning methods, and Bayesian Linear Regression. The objective is to demonstrate the accuracy and high efficiency of the predictions made by these models. Furthermore, the MTGPR model employs the shared information between the three types of joints to enhance the prediction performance. Subsequently, the SHapley Additive exPlanations method was employed to examine the interpretability of the GPR model in relation to the strength uncertainty of welded CHS steel tubular joints. Ultimately, the uncertainty in the strength of the three welded CHS steel tubular joints is quantified based on the proposed prediction methodology in conjunction with Monte Carlo Simulation through the utilisation of Sobol sensitivity analysis and Morris sensitivity analysis. The findings indicate that the chord diameter D and chord length L of welded CHS steel tubular joints have the greatest impact on the uncertainty of strength. The aforementioned study facilitates the optimisation of the design of actual engineering structures, the management of the range of strength uncertainty and the enhancement of the safety and reliability of engineering structures.
Keyword ：
Gaussian process regression Gaussian process regression Sensitivity analysis Sensitivity analysis Strength prediction Strength prediction Uncertainty quantification Uncertainty quantification Welded CHS steel tubular joints Welded CHS steel tubular joints
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| GB/T 7714 | Chen, Bowen , Chen, Libo , Mo, Ruchun et al. Strength prediction and uncertainty quantification of welded CHS tubular joints via Gaussian process regression [J]. | ENGINEERING STRUCTURES , 2025 , 332 . |
| MLA | Chen, Bowen et al. "Strength prediction and uncertainty quantification of welded CHS tubular joints via Gaussian process regression" . | ENGINEERING STRUCTURES 332 (2025) . |
| APA | Chen, Bowen , Chen, Libo , Mo, Ruchun , Wang, Zongcheng , Zheng, Li , Zhang, Canlin et al. Strength prediction and uncertainty quantification of welded CHS tubular joints via Gaussian process regression . | ENGINEERING STRUCTURES , 2025 , 332 . |
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This study investigates the application of ordinal regression models in seismic fragility curve modeling, providing a flexible alternative to the traditional log-normal distribution function. A comparative analysis is conducted among various ordinal regression approaches, including the traditional Cumulative model as well as alternative methods like Sequential and Adjacent Category models, along with extensions that account for category-specific effects and heteroscedasticity. These models are applied to bridge damage data from the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, using both frequentist and Bayesian inference methods. Model diagnostics, including surrogate residuals, are performed to assess model fit and performance. A total of eleven models are examined, from basic forms to those incorporating category-specific effects and variance heterogeneity. The Sequential model with category-specific effects, rigorously evaluated using leave-one-out cross-validation, outperforms the traditional Cumulative probit model. The findings highlight significant differences in the predicted damage probabilities, emphasizing the potential of more flexible fragility curve modeling techniques to improve seismic risk assessments. This study underscores the importance of ongoing evaluation and refinement of modeling techniques to enhance the predictive accuracy and applicability of seismic fragility models in performance-based earthquake engineering.
Keyword ：
Bayesian inference Bayesian inference category-specific effects category-specific effects ordinal regression models ordinal regression models seismic fragility seismic fragility variance heterogeneity variance heterogeneity
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| GB/T 7714 | Chen, Libo . Generalized Ordinal Regression Models for Seismic Fragility Analysis [J]. | EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING & STRUCTURAL DYNAMICS , 2025 , 54 (6) : 1717-1736 . |
| MLA | Chen, Libo . "Generalized Ordinal Regression Models for Seismic Fragility Analysis" . | EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING & STRUCTURAL DYNAMICS 54 . 6 (2025) : 1717-1736 . |
| APA | Chen, Libo . Generalized Ordinal Regression Models for Seismic Fragility Analysis . | EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING & STRUCTURAL DYNAMICS , 2025 , 54 (6) , 1717-1736 . |
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This paper investigated chloride-corroded concrete-encased steel (CES) slender columns subjected to axial loading. Twelve specimens were tested to evaluate the effects of corrosion on failure modes and mechanical performance. Results show that chloride corrosion accelerates structural degradation and shifts failure from end-region to mid-span as corrosion intensifies. Higher slenderness ratios amplify corrosion-induced losses in load-bearing capacity and stiffness. Based on the test data, a predictive formula was proposed to estimate axial load capacity considering section loss and confinement effects. Stability analysis using a modified Euler approach indicated no instability failure but revealed a reduced safety margin with increasing corrosion severity and slenderness. A validated finite element model was developed, and parametric analysis showed that CES columns experience significant stiffness and stability deterioration when the slenderness ratio exceeds 62. The findings support structural assessment and maintenance planning for CES members in corrosive environments. © 2025 The Authors
Keyword ：
Axial-load carrying capacity Axial-load carrying capacity Chloride-induced corrosion Chloride-induced corrosion Concrete-encased steel slender column Concrete-encased steel slender column Finite element analysis Finite element analysis Performance deterioration Performance deterioration
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| GB/T 7714 | Lin, Y. , Xing, Z. , Chen, L. et al. Axial stability of chloride-corroded CES slender columns: Experimental and numerical study [J]. | Case Studies in Construction Materials , 2025 , 22 . |
| MLA | Lin, Y. et al. "Axial stability of chloride-corroded CES slender columns: Experimental and numerical study" . | Case Studies in Construction Materials 22 (2025) . |
| APA | Lin, Y. , Xing, Z. , Chen, L. , Zhang, X. , Jiang, S. , Chen, Y. . Axial stability of chloride-corroded CES slender columns: Experimental and numerical study . | Case Studies in Construction Materials , 2025 , 22 . |
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This study addresses the seismic risk assessment of bridges located across reverse-oblique fault zones, focusing on the complex effects of buried reverse strike-slip faults with shallow burial depfths. The surface rupture patterns of reverse strike-slip faults may differ from the locations of surface rupture typically identified in conventional cross-fault engineering studies, presenting unique challenges for seismic assessment. First, a novel approach combining a broadband hybrid method with site-specific risk assessment results to simulate ground motions in regions adjacent to a reverse strike-slip fault. The simulation results are validated by comparing the mean log residuals with recorded data from the Luding earthquake in China. Second, taking into account the effects of fault depth, the study divides the affected area into four distinct regions based on varying ground motion characteristics, and performs time-range analyses to examine differences in permanent displacements and variability among these regions. Lastly, a relative displacement index is introduced to quantify the fragility differences across fault regions (with or without surface dislocation reversal). Three boundary effects are evaluated to assess the impact of this new index on traditional metrics used to estimate collapse probability. The results demonstrate that the broadband hybrid method, when tailored to local site conditions, effectively models ground motion variations in near-fault regions. Additionally, the study reveals that spatial variability in ground motion intensity and motion directionality significantly increase the uncertainty in collapse probability predictions. Combining peak velocity and relative dynamic displacement notably improves the overall collapse probability assessment using the ground motion intensity index, while peak velocity and relative residual displacement are more appropriate for evaluating collapse probability at specific ground motion intensities. These findings offer valuable insights into the seismic design and evaluation of bridges spanning fault zones and provide more reliable damage assessment methods for infrastructure in high-risk seismic areas.
Keyword ：
broadband hybrid method broadband hybrid method Cross-fault bridges Cross-fault bridges fragility surface fragility surface reverse strike-slip fault reverse strike-slip fault strong ground motion simulation strong ground motion simulation
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| GB/T 7714 | Chen, He-Yu , Chen, Li-Bo , Li, Huai-Guang et al. Ground Motion Simulation and Bridges Collapse Fragility Analysis Across Reverse Strike-Slip Faults [J]. | JOURNAL OF EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING , 2025 . |
| MLA | Chen, He-Yu et al. "Ground Motion Simulation and Bridges Collapse Fragility Analysis Across Reverse Strike-Slip Faults" . | JOURNAL OF EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING (2025) . |
| APA | Chen, He-Yu , Chen, Li-Bo , Li, Huai-Guang , Gu, Yin , Zou, Yu-Lin . Ground Motion Simulation and Bridges Collapse Fragility Analysis Across Reverse Strike-Slip Faults . | JOURNAL OF EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING , 2025 . |
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Earthquake-induced debris flow landslides pose a serious threat to bridge structures. However, current research on the dynamic response and damage mechanisms of bridges due to debris flow landslides is still insufficient; the fragility analysis of bridges under the combined effects of earthquakes and related geological hazards needs further improvement. In this paper, a bridge dynamic response simulation method is proposed for the coupled effects of transverse earthquakes and debris flow landslides. The method first establishes an integrated model of the mountain and bridge piers, using the discrete element method to calculate the dynamic impact of the landslide on the piers. Subsequently, a nonlinear dynamic model of the bridge is established using the finite element method. By inputting the time histories of transverse seismic motion and landslide impact, the coupled effects of transverse earthquakes and landslides are analyzed. The paper analyzes the influence of sliding distance, landslide length, and slope gradient on the dynamic response and fragility of bridges through case studies. Research reveals that the shear capacity of the pier under the coupled effects of earthquakes and landslides should be considered. The combined effects also increase the displacement response of the piers, with the maximum pier top drift ratio of the case bridge increasing by 334 % at a 35 degrees slope compared to the earthquakeonly condition. Under the coupled effects of earthquakes and landslides, the piers will experience significant residual deformation in the direction of the landslide. Increases in sliding distance, landslide length, and slope gradient all increase the fragility of bridges under various damage states, with the complete damage probability of the case bridge rising from 5 % under earthquake-only conditions to 47 % at a 35 degrees slope. The slope gradient has the greatest sensitivity to the fragility of bridges, followed by the sliding distance, and finally the landslide length.
Keyword ：
Bridge damage mechanisms Bridge damage mechanisms Bridge fragility Bridge fragility Debris flow landslides Debris flow landslides Earthquake and landslide coupling Earthquake and landslide coupling Mountain bridges Mountain bridges
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| GB/T 7714 | Lian, Qiang , Chen, Libo , Dang, Xinzhi et al. Dynamic response and fragility of mountain bridges under the coupled effects of transverse earthquakes and landslides [J]. | SOIL DYNAMICS AND EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING , 2025 , 188 . |
| MLA | Lian, Qiang et al. "Dynamic response and fragility of mountain bridges under the coupled effects of transverse earthquakes and landslides" . | SOIL DYNAMICS AND EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING 188 (2025) . |
| APA | Lian, Qiang , Chen, Libo , Dang, Xinzhi , Zhuo, Weidong , Li, Changchun . Dynamic response and fragility of mountain bridges under the coupled effects of transverse earthquakes and landslides . | SOIL DYNAMICS AND EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING , 2025 , 188 . |
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Current seismic design codes for bridge structures do not account for the influence of aftershock sequences, which, to some extent, overestimate the seismic performance for bridges subjected to mainshock-aftershock (MS-AS) scenarios. To address the great need for ground motion sequences tailored to specific research sites for fragility analysis, this study proposes a method for generating artificial MS-AS ground motion sequences based on the evolutional bimodal Kanai–Tajimi model and the Epidemic–Type Aftershock Sequence model. We establish a framework for MS-AS fragility analysis using an input–output Hidden Markov Model (IOHMM), where the damage states (DS) of bridge piers are considered unobservable and are inferred statistically through damage indices in an unsupervised manner. Model parameters are trained using intensity measure (IM) sequences and damage index (DI) sequences. Fragility curves for both the mainshock and state-dependent aftershocks considering multiple aftershocks are formulated based on the initial state probability and state transition probabilities of the proposed IOHMM. The fragility analysis results reveal that as the initial seismic damage level increases, the probability of aftershocks causing higher damage levels in the structure also increases, highlighting the significant impact of aftershocks on structural damage increments. Furthermore, we extend the proposed model to a bivariate seismic intensity measure and develop fragility surfaces. The proposed framework provides a novel approach and insights for tackling seismic fragility under multiple aftershocks. © 2024 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Keyword ：
bridge structure bridge structure input-output hidden Markov model input-output hidden Markov model mainshock-aftershock sequences mainshock-aftershock sequences seismic fragility seismic fragility
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| GB/T 7714 | Chen, L. , Zhou, J. . Seismic fragility analysis of girder bridges under mainshock-aftershock sequences based on input-output hidden Markov model [J]. | Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics , 2024 , 53 (11) : 3469-3488 . |
| MLA | Chen, L. et al. "Seismic fragility analysis of girder bridges under mainshock-aftershock sequences based on input-output hidden Markov model" . | Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics 53 . 11 (2024) : 3469-3488 . |
| APA | Chen, L. , Zhou, J. . Seismic fragility analysis of girder bridges under mainshock-aftershock sequences based on input-output hidden Markov model . | Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics , 2024 , 53 (11) , 3469-3488 . |
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To investigate the axial compressive properties and failure modes of 18 locally corroded square steel tube short columns, salt spray corrosion tests were conducted. The findings indicate that local corrosion in the horizontal direction significantly impacts the ultimate bearing capacity of the specimens, with all failures occurring in the corroded areas. However, the influence of the corrosion area on the ultimate bearing capacity and ductility of the specimens is not evident. A local corrosion model for square steel tube short columns was developed using the finite element method. The ultimate bearing capacity determined through finite element simulation closely aligns with experimental results, validating the reliability of the simulation approach. Moreover, a comparison is made between the prediction models of the BP neural network and the GA-BP neural network, with the prediction effectiveness of each model evaluated using the leave-one-out method. The verification results indicate that the GA-BP neural network model demonstrates superior predictive performance, with an average error of 3.14%. © 2024
Keyword ：
Axial compression behavior Axial compression behavior BP-GA algorithm BP-GA algorithm Locally corroded Locally corroded Numerical simulation Numerical simulation Square steel tube short column Square steel tube short column
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| GB/T 7714 | Zhang, W. , Shi, J. , Xing, Z. et al. Study on mechanical properties of locally corroded square steel tube short column [J]. | Journal of Constructional Steel Research , 2024 , 222 . |
| MLA | Zhang, W. et al. "Study on mechanical properties of locally corroded square steel tube short column" . | Journal of Constructional Steel Research 222 (2024) . |
| APA | Zhang, W. , Shi, J. , Xing, Z. , Chen, L. , Guo, Z. , Wang, Z. et al. Study on mechanical properties of locally corroded square steel tube short column . | Journal of Constructional Steel Research , 2024 , 222 . |
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The framework for performance-based seismic design and assessment of bridges grapples with the pressing challenge of precisely estimating the seismic capacities correlation amongst bridge piers. To address this issue, a Bayesian semiparametric hierarchical model is proposed in this study to characterize such correlation. This model was applied to a database populated with multiple-column tests conducted by distinct research cohorts. Given that each group performed tests under analogous conditions, the model could be operationalized on the database to derive intraclass correlation coefficients that reflect the statistical correlation among piers tested by individual research groups. It is postulated that these coefficients also typify the capacity correlation across multiple bridge piers within a bridge system. After a thorough examination of the data set, particularly focusing on the nature of missing values, an appropriate multiple imputation technique was selected to address the missing data, aiming to approximate the most accurate intraclass correlation. The analysis revealed that, among the various damage limit states, the correlation coefficients spanned between 0.386 and 0.883. This suggests that the seismic capacity of bridge piers is influenced not only by design parameters but also by the experimental group. Utilizing independent or fully correlated relationships between capacities, rather than true correlation coefficients, can lead to significant deviations in the fragility curve, which increase with the number of bridge piers. Such observations accentuate the necessity of integrating authentic pier capacity correlations in the bridge system fragility analysis. © 2024 American Society of Civil Engineers.
Keyword ：
Bridge piers Bridge piers Hierarchical systems Hierarchical systems Piers Piers Seismic design Seismic design Seismology Seismology Statistical tests Statistical tests
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| GB/T 7714 | Chen, Libo , Mo, Ruchun , Chen, Yu et al. Investigation of Intraclass Correlation of Seismic Capacity for RC Bridge Piers Based on Hierarchical Model [J]. | ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering , 2024 , 10 (3) . |
| MLA | Chen, Libo et al. "Investigation of Intraclass Correlation of Seismic Capacity for RC Bridge Piers Based on Hierarchical Model" . | ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering 10 . 3 (2024) . |
| APA | Chen, Libo , Mo, Ruchun , Chen, Yu , Guo, Zhan , Zheng, Zhenfeng . Investigation of Intraclass Correlation of Seismic Capacity for RC Bridge Piers Based on Hierarchical Model . | ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering , 2024 , 10 (3) . |
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Current seismic design codes for bridge structures do not account for the influence of aftershock sequences, which, to some extent, overestimate the seismic performance for bridges subjected to mainshock‐aftershock (MS‐AS) scenarios. To address the great need for ground motion sequences tailored to specific research sites for fragility analysis, this study proposes a method for generating artificial MS‐AS ground motion sequences based on the evolutional bimodal Kanai–Tajimi model and the Epidemic–Type Aftershock Sequence model. We establish a framework for MS‐AS fragility analysis using an input–output Hidden Markov Model (IOHMM), where the damage states (DS) of bridge piers are considered unobservable and are inferred statistically through damage indices in an unsupervised manner. Model parameters are trained using intensity measure (IM) sequences and damage index (DI) sequences. Fragility curves for both the mainshock and state‐dependent aftershocks considering multiple aftershocks are formulated based on the initial state probability and state transition probabilities of the proposed IOHMM. The fragility analysis results reveal that as the initial seismic damage level increases, the probability of aftershocks causing higher damage levels in the structure also increases, highlighting the significant impact of aftershocks on structural damage increments. Furthermore, we extend the proposed model to a bivariate seismic intensity measure and develop fragility surfaces. The proposed framework provides a novel approach and insights for tackling seismic fragility under multiple aftershocks.
Keyword ：
bridge structure bridge structure input-output hidden Markov model input-output hidden Markov model mainshock-aftershock sequences mainshock-aftershock sequences seismic fragility seismic fragility
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| GB/T 7714 | Libo Chen , Liangpeng Chen , Jianhong Zhou . Seismic fragility analysis of girder bridges under mainshock‐aftershock sequences based on input‐output hidden Markov model [J]. | Earthquake Engineering & Structural Dynamics , 2024 , 53 (11) : 3469-3488 . |
| MLA | Libo Chen et al. "Seismic fragility analysis of girder bridges under mainshock‐aftershock sequences based on input‐output hidden Markov model" . | Earthquake Engineering & Structural Dynamics 53 . 11 (2024) : 3469-3488 . |
| APA | Libo Chen , Liangpeng Chen , Jianhong Zhou . Seismic fragility analysis of girder bridges under mainshock‐aftershock sequences based on input‐output hidden Markov model . | Earthquake Engineering & Structural Dynamics , 2024 , 53 (11) , 3469-3488 . |
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