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author:

Lin, Hualing (Lin, Hualing.) [1] | Sun, Qiubi (Sun, Qiubi.) [2] (Scholars:孙秋碧) | Chen, Sheng-Qun (Chen, Sheng-Qun.) [3]

Indexed by:

SSCI Scopus SCIE

Abstract:

In international trade, it is common practice for multinational companies to use financial market instruments, such as financial derivatives and foreign currency debt, to hedge exchange rate risks. Making accurate predictions and decisions on the direction and magnitude of exchange rate movements is a more direct way to reduce exchange rate risks. However, the traditional time series model has many limitations in forecasting exchange rate, which is nonlinear and nonstationary. In this paper, we propose a new hybrid model of complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMDAN) based multilayer long short-term memory (MLSTM) networks. It overcomes the shortcomings of the classic methods. CEEMDAN not only solves the mode mixing problem of empirical mode decomposition (EMD), but also solves the residue noise problem which is included in the reconstructed data of ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) with less computation cost. MLSTM can learning more complex dependences from exchange rate data than the classic model of time series. A lot of experiments have been conducted to measure the performance of the proposed approach among the exchange rates of British pound, the Australian dollar, and the US dollar. In order to get an objective evaluation, we compared the proposed method with several standard approaches or other hybrid models. The experimental results show that the CEEMDAN-based MLSTM (CEEMDAN-MLSTM) goes on better than some state-of-the-art models in terms of several evaluations.

Keyword:

complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) exchange rate risks hybrid forecasting approach multilayer long short-term memory (MLSTM)

Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Lin, Hualing]Fuzhou Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Fuzhou 350108, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Sun, Qiubi]Fuzhou Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Fuzhou 350108, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Chen, Sheng-Qun]Fuzhou Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Fuzhou 350108, Peoples R China

Reprint 's Address:

  • 林华灵

    [Lin, Hualing]Fuzhou Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Fuzhou 350108, Peoples R China

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SUSTAINABILITY

ISSN: 2071-1050

Year: 2020

Issue: 6

Volume: 12

3 . 2 5 1

JCR@2020

3 . 3 0 0

JCR@2023

ESI Discipline: ENVIRONMENT/ECOLOGY;

ESI HC Threshold:159

JCR Journal Grade:2

CAS Journal Grade:3

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 25

SCOPUS Cited Count: 29

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 2

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