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author:

Lu, Xiaoyang (Lu, Xiaoyang.) [1]

Indexed by:

EI Scopus SCIE

Abstract:

The relationship between environmental factors with the power output of photovoltaic (PV) stations is unclear due to the non-linear characteristics of PV systems, which is challenging for PV power forecasting technology. To cope with these challenges, a hybrid forecasting approach called hybrid K-Means++ and Deep Neural Network with input and output adjusting structures (K-IAOA-DNN) is proposed to accurately predict PV power output. The proposed forecasting approach designs several features for K-Means++ to search for similar samples, reducing the complexity of the following forecasting model. Due to changeable environmental conditions and characteristics of PV systems like degradation, the prediction result of a forecasting model may deviate from the expected one. Therefore, IAOA-DNN model is developed by using a DNN adopting the two proposed structures e. g., the input adjusting structure and the output adjusting structure. The input adjusting structure uses several trainable parameters to determine the importance of each meteorological input for further feature extracting by DNN. The output structure in the prediction model is used for analyzing features extracted from DNN to generate a scalar factor fine-tuning the output of DNN. Additionally, the proposed method provides more accurate forecasting results with average RMSE, NRMSE, and MAE values of 14.43, 0.048, and 9.53 kW, respectively.

Keyword:

Day-ahead Deep neural network PV power forecasting

Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Lu, Xiaoyang]Fuzhou Univ, Sch Phys & Informat Engn, Fuzhou, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Lu, Xiaoyang]Fuzhou Univ, Inst Micronano Devices & Solar Cells, Fuzhou, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Lu, Xiaoyang]Jiangsu Collaborat Innovat Ctr Photovolta Sci & En, Changzhou, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Lu, Xiaoyang]Univ Technol Sydney, Fac Engn & Informat Technol, Sydney, Australia
  • [ 5 ] [Lu, Xiaoyang]Fuzhou Univ, Sch Phys & Informat Engn, Fuzhou 350116, Peoples R China
  • [ 6 ] [Lu, Xiaoyang]Fuzhou Univ, Inst Micronano Devices & Solar Cells, Fuzhou 350116, Peoples R China

Reprint 's Address:

  • 卢箫扬

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Version:

Related Keywords:

Source :

MEASUREMENT

ISSN: 0263-2241

Year: 2023

Volume: 220

5 . 2

JCR@2023

5 . 2 0 0

JCR@2023

ESI Discipline: ENGINEERING;

ESI HC Threshold:35

JCR Journal Grade:1

CAS Journal Grade:2

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 9

SCOPUS Cited Count: 9

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 2

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