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This paper investigates the heterogeneous risk spillovers from crude oil to regional natural gas markets against the background of the North American shale gas revolution. The market risks are measured by the upside and downside VaR. We first confirm the existence of risk spillovers between oil and gas markets by using Granger causality in risk. Then, we employ the MVMQ-CAViaR model to reveal the tail-dependence patterns and propose the performance test to highlight the accuracy of the model for the construction of VaR. Furthermore, we construct quantile impulse-response functions and identify asymmetric features in the magnitude, duration, and direction of response by gas markets to extreme negative and positive oil price shocks. Our results show that the revolution actually affects the risk spillovers from oil to gas markets and exhibits the time-varying property. And the heterogeneous risk-transmission mechanisms depend on the regional characteristics and specific market scenarios. Finally, policy implications are discussed. © 2019, © 2019 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.
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Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning and Policy
ISSN: 1556-7249
Year: 2019
Issue: 6
Volume: 14
Page: 215-234
1 . 7 5 8
JCR@2019
3 . 2 0 0
JCR@2023
ESI HC Threshold:150
CAS Journal Grade:4
Cited Count:
SCOPUS Cited Count: 5
ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All
WanFang Cited Count:
Chinese Cited Count:
30 Days PV: 1
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