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Abstract:
Predicting urban crowd flow spatial distributions plays a critical role in optimizing urban public safety and traffic congestion management. The spatial dependency between regions and the temporal dynamics of the local crowd flow are two important features in urban crowd flow prediction. However, few studies considered geographic characteristic in terms of spatial features. To fill this gap, we propose an urban crowd flow prediction model integrating geographic characteristics (FPM-geo). First, three geographic characteristics, proximity, functional similarity, and road network connectivity, are fused by a residual multigraph convolution network to model the spatial dependency relationship. Then, a long short-term memory network is applied as a framework to integrate both the temporal dynamic patterns of local crowd flow and the spatial dependency between regions. A 4-day mobile phone dataset validates the effectiveness of the proposed method by comparing it with several widely used approaches. The result shows that the root mean square error decreases by 15.37% compared with those of the typical models with the prediction interval at the 15-min level. The prediction error increases with the crowd flow size in a local area. Moreover, the error reaches the top of the morning peak and the evening peak and slopes down to the bottom at night.
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SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
ISSN: 2045-2322
Year: 2023
Issue: 1
Volume: 13
3 . 8
JCR@2023
3 . 8 0 0
JCR@2023
ESI Discipline: MULTIDISCIPLINARY;
ESI HC Threshold:42
JCR Journal Grade:1
CAS Journal Grade:2
Cited Count:
WoS CC Cited Count: 3
SCOPUS Cited Count: 5
ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All
WanFang Cited Count:
Chinese Cited Count:
30 Days PV: 1
Affiliated Colleges: