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author:

Shao, Bo (Shao, Bo.) [1] | Su, Xiaoli (Su, Xiaoli.) [2] | Li, Xin (Li, Xin.) [3] | Zhuo, Xingxuan (Zhuo, Xingxuan.) [4] (Scholars:卓杏轩)

Indexed by:

SSCI Scopus

Abstract:

Forecasting cargo throughput is an essential albeit challenging task for national and port optimisation decision-making, resource allocation, and control planning. To this end, a novel forecasting model is developed for mixed-frequency data called attention-DeepAR-MIDAS (ADM) by introducing the mixed data sampling (MIDAS) technique and attention mechanism into the DeepAR forecasting algorithm in this study. The proposed ADM model is specifically designed with an attention mechanism to accurately identify and prioritise the most influential variables, both endogenous and exogenous, over time. Hence, it can effectively use the nonlinear information of mixed-frequency data, which is conducive to port throughput forecasting. Furthermore, the ADM model possesses both long-term and short-term high-precision forecasting capabilities, enabling multi-step probability forecasting and better tracking of abnormal changes in endogenous and exogenous variables of port throughput, fitting their fluctuation trends. By analysing the differences in model performance before and after improvement based on forecast accuracy metrics, probability interval testing, and DM testing methods, the ADM model achieves accurate forecasting. Finally, China's monthly port throughput forecast results also illustrate the superiority of the ADM model, which provides decision-makers with more timely, accurate, and comprehensive forecasts.

Keyword:

machine learning mixed-frequency data nonlinearity port throughput forecasting time-series

Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Shao, Bo]Univ Wisconsin Madison, Dept Ind & Syst Engn, Madison, WI USA
  • [ 2 ] [Su, Xiaoli]Fuzhou Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Fuzhou, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Zhuo, Xingxuan]Fuzhou Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Fuzhou, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Li, Xin]Fuzhou Univ Technol, Sch Transportat, Fuzhou, Peoples R China

Reprint 's Address:

  • 卓杏轩

    [Zhuo, Xingxuan]Fuzhou Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Fuzhou, Peoples R China

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Source :

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SHIPPING AND TRANSPORT LOGISTICS

ISSN: 1756-6517

Year: 2025

Issue: 3

Volume: 20

1 . 4 0 0

JCR@2023

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count:

SCOPUS Cited Count:

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 3

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