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author:

Wang, Congxiao (Wang, Congxiao.) [1] | Li, Wei (Li, Wei.) [2] | Chen, Zuoqi (Chen, Zuoqi.) [3] | Zhang, Hong (Zhang, Hong.) [4] | Wei, Ye (Wei, Ye.) [5] | Tu, Yue (Tu, Yue.) [6] | Yu, Bailang (Yu, Bailang.) [7]

Indexed by:

SCIE

Abstract:

Intercity networks are interconnected systems of cities and towns that collaborate and interact through social, economic, and infrastructural connections. Intercity networks constantly evolve, and analyzing their evolution is crucial for urban planning and regional cooperation. Existing intercity network simulation methods that rely on flow data have short-time series and face privacy issues, while methods based on statistical data suffer from data gaps in certain regions and are updated slowly. Nighttime Light (NTL) data offer a valuable alternative due to their advantages in time-series accessibility, rapid updating, and broad coverage. However, current studies based on NTL data are limited to regional scales, which restricts their applicability for comprehensive, large-scale, and historical analyses of urban development. This study uses machine learning models to simulate China's intercity population flow networks, using intercity population flow data from Baidu as the target variable and features extracted from NTL, land cover, and road data as input variables. Three machine learning models, including Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Random Forest, and Light Gradient Boosting Machine, were trained and tested on data from 2020 to 2021. The XGBoost model achieved R2 values of 0.82 on the validation set and 0.77 on the test set and was selected as the optimal model for constructing intercity population flow networks in China for 2012, 2017, and 2022. The evolution of the intercity population flow network was examined from both spatial structure and city centrality perspectives. The findings revealed a shift in China's intercity population flows spatial structure from a multipolar pattern to a combination of multipolar and rhombus-shaped patterns. From 2012 to 2022, China's largest cities first developed and then drove the development of neighboring cities. This study introduces a novel method for intercity population flow network simulation on a large scale, offering valuable insights for urban planning and strategic decision-making.

Keyword:

evolution characteristics intercity population flow network machine learning Nighttime light

Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Wang, Congxiao]East China Normal Univ, Key Lab Geog Informat Sci, Minist Educ, Shanghai, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Li, Wei]East China Normal Univ, Key Lab Geog Informat Sci, Minist Educ, Shanghai, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Tu, Yue]East China Normal Univ, Key Lab Geog Informat Sci, Minist Educ, Shanghai, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Yu, Bailang]East China Normal Univ, Key Lab Geog Informat Sci, Minist Educ, Shanghai, Peoples R China
  • [ 5 ] [Wang, Congxiao]East China Normal Univ, Sch Geog Sci, Shanghai, Peoples R China
  • [ 6 ] [Li, Wei]East China Normal Univ, Sch Geog Sci, Shanghai, Peoples R China
  • [ 7 ] [Zhang, Hong]East China Normal Univ, Sch Geog Sci, Shanghai, Peoples R China
  • [ 8 ] [Tu, Yue]East China Normal Univ, Sch Geog Sci, Shanghai, Peoples R China
  • [ 9 ] [Yu, Bailang]East China Normal Univ, Sch Geog Sci, Shanghai, Peoples R China
  • [ 10 ] [Chen, Zuoqi]Fuzhou Univ, Spatial Informat Res Ctr,Minist Educ, Natl & Local Joint Engn Res Ctr Satellite Geospati, Key Lab Spatial Data Min & Informat Sharing, Fuzhou 350002, Peoples R China
  • [ 11 ] [Chen, Zuoqi]Fuzhou Univ, Acad Digital China, Fuzhou, Peoples R China
  • [ 12 ] [Zhang, Hong]East China Normal Univ, Inst Global Innovat & Dev, Shanghai, Peoples R China
  • [ 13 ] [Wei, Ye]Northeast Normal Univ, Sch Geog Sci, Key Lab Geog Proc & Ecol Secur Changbai Mt, Minist Educ, Changchun, Peoples R China
  • [ 14 ] [Yu, Bailang]East China Normal Univ, Res Ctr China Adm Div, Shanghai, Peoples R China

Reprint 's Address:

  • [Yu, Bailang]East China Normal Univ, Key Lab Geog Informat Sci, Minist Educ, Shanghai, Peoples R China;;[Yu, Bailang]East China Normal Univ, Sch Geog Sci, Shanghai, Peoples R China;;[Yu, Bailang]East China Normal Univ, Res Ctr China Adm Div, Shanghai, Peoples R China

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Source :

GEO-SPATIAL INFORMATION SCIENCE

ISSN: 1009-5020

Year: 2025

4 . 4 0 0

JCR@2023

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count:

SCOPUS Cited Count:

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 2

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