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author:

Xu, Yang (Xu, Yang.) [1] | Peng, Peng (Peng, Peng.) [2] | Claramunt, Christophe (Claramunt, Christophe.) [3] | Xie, Wenxin (Xie, Wenxin.) [4] | Lu, Feng (Lu, Feng.) [5]

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EI

Abstract:

Unexpected port disruptions, caused by severe congestion or geopolitical conflicts, can lead to reassignment of shipping flows and trigger cascading hazards across the Global Container Shipping Network (GCSN), with far-reaching socioeconomic impacts. Understanding the mechanisms of such cascading risk propagation requires accurate simulation of dynamic flow reassignment and the development of a tailored diffusion model for maritime scenarios. This research introduces a novel cascading modeling framework that captures port-level dynamic shipping flow reassignment and assesses cascading failure diffusion in the GCSN. Using massive container vessel trajectory data, we design a directed and weighted GCSN, identify alternative ports for disrupted nodes through a combination of network topology analysis and geographic nearest-neighbor search, and refine port selection with a nonlinear trajectory cost function incorporating maritime distance, vessel load differences, and port size. Cascading failure is simulated by integrating the Motter-Lai load-capacity model with the dynamic reassignment process, and three maritime-specific vulnerability indicators are proposed to evaluate network resilience. The findings show that limiting port loads to 60 % of capacity or increasing port capacity by 40 to 60 % significantly mitigates cascading risk. It also appears that the European port system is found to be more susceptible to cascading disruptions than its East Asian counterpart. The proposed approach provides actionable insights and risk mitigation strategies for enhancing the resilience of global maritime logistics in the face of unexpected disruptions. © 2025 Elsevier Ltd

Keyword:

Containers Cost benefit analysis Diffusion Dynamics Marine safety Nearest neighbor search Network security Network topology Ports and harbors Risk assessment Risk perception Ships Trajectories

Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Xu, Yang]State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing; 100101, China
  • [ 2 ] [Xu, Yang]University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing; 100049, China
  • [ 3 ] [Peng, Peng]State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing; 100101, China
  • [ 4 ] [Peng, Peng]University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing; 100049, China
  • [ 5 ] [Claramunt, Christophe]State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing; 100101, China
  • [ 6 ] [Claramunt, Christophe]Naval Academy Research Institute, Lanvéoc; 29240, France
  • [ 7 ] [Xie, Wenxin]State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing; 100101, China
  • [ 8 ] [Xie, Wenxin]University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing; 100049, China
  • [ 9 ] [Lu, Feng]State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing; 100101, China
  • [ 10 ] [Lu, Feng]University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing; 100049, China
  • [ 11 ] [Lu, Feng]The Academy of Digital China, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou; 350002, China
  • [ 12 ] [Lu, Feng]Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing; 210023, China

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Source :

Reliability Engineering and System Safety

ISSN: 0951-8320

Year: 2026

Volume: 265

9 . 4 0 0

JCR@2023

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count:

SCOPUS Cited Count: 1

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 2

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