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author:

Pan, W. (Pan, W..) [1] | Liu, S.Q. (Liu, S.Q..) [2] | Kumral, M. (Kumral, M..) [3] | D’Ariano, A. (D’Ariano, A..) [4] | Masoud, M. (Masoud, M..) [5] | Khan, W.A. (Khan, W.A..) [6] | Bakather, A. (Bakather, A..) [7]

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Scopus

Abstract:

Iron ore has had a highly global market since setting a new pricing mechanism in 2008. With current dollar values, iron ore concentrate for sale price, which was $39 per tonne (62% Fe) in December 2015, reached $218 per tonne (62% Fe) in mid-2021. It is hovering around $120 in October 2023 (cf. https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/iron-ore). The uncertainty associated with these fluctuations creates hardship for iron ore mine operators and steelmakers in planning mine development and making future sale agreements. Therefore, iron ore price forecasting is of special importance. This paper proposes a cutting-edge multi-echelon tandem learning (METL) model to forecast iron ore prices. This model comprises variational mode decomposition (VMD), multi-head convolutional neural network (MCNN), stacked long short-term-memory (SLSTM) network, and attention mechanism (AT). In the proposed METL (i.e., the combination of VMD, MCNN, SLSTM, AT) model, the VMD decomposes the time series data into sub-sequential modes for better measuring volatility. Then, the MCNN is applied as an encoder to extract spatial features from the decomposed sub-sequential modes. The SLSTM network is adopted as a decoder to extract temporal features. Finally, the AT is employed to capture spatial–temporal features to obtain the complete forecasting process. Extensive computational experiments are conducted based on daily-based and weekly-based iron ore price datasets with different time scales. It was validated that the proposed METL model outperformed its single-echelon and other categorized models by 10–65% in range. The proposed METL model can improve the prediction accuracy of iron ore prices and thus help mining and steelmaking enterprises to determine their sale or purchase strategies. © International Association for Mathematical Geosciences 2024.

Keyword:

Attention mechanism Decoder–encoder network Deep learning Iron ore price forecasting Variational mode decomposition

Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Pan W.]School of Economics and Management, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou, 350108, China
  • [ 2 ] [Liu S.Q.]School of Economics and Management, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou, 350108, China
  • [ 3 ] [Kumral M.]Department of Mining and Materials Engineering, McGill University, 3450 University Street, Montreal, H3A 0E8, QC, Canada
  • [ 4 ] [D’Ariano A.]Department of Civil, Computer Science and Aeronautical Technologies Engineering, Roma Tre University, Rome, 00146, Italy
  • [ 5 ] [Masoud M.]Department of Information Systems and Operations Management, King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, Dhahran, Saudi Arabia
  • [ 6 ] [Khan W.A.]Department of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management, University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates
  • [ 7 ] [Bakather A.]Center of Finance and Digital Economy, King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, Dhahran, Saudi Arabia

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Source :

Natural Resources Research

ISSN: 1520-7439

Year: 2024

Issue: 5

Volume: 33

Page: 1969-1992

4 . 8 0 0

JCR@2023

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count:

SCOPUS Cited Count: 1

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 1

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