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author:

Xu, Yuzhen (Xu, Yuzhen.) [1] | Huang, Xin (Huang, Xin.) [2] | Gao, Ziao (Gao, Ziao.) [3] | Mohamed, Mohamed A. (Mohamed, Mohamed A..) [4] | Jin, Tao (Jin, Tao.) [5]

Indexed by:

SCIE

Abstract:

Electricity price forecasting (EPF) is crucial for the optimal dispatch of energy markets. The increasing penetration of renewable energy for electricity generation has added more influencing variables to the electricity price curve, making the EPF more challenging. Therefore, this paper addresses electricity price data in energy markets with renewable energy generation and proposes an innovative Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD)based multi-attention mechanism feature fusion model (V-MAF) for EPF. First, VMD processing reduces noise and captures multi-scale features in price and load sequences. Next, by integrating Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCN), and Squeeze-and-Excitation Networks (SENet), a parallel network architecture combining SE-TCN and SE-GRU is constructed. This architecture captures local fluctuations and periodic patterns in VMD-separated multi-scale data, enhancing feature exploration and improving the model's ability to fit price variations. Finally, the output features from both networks are combined and fed into a Multi-Head Attention (MHA) along with the original features, allowing the model to focus on different parts of the input features from multiple perspectives. The innovative architecture enhances the ability to capture multi-scale features in time series and further focuses on key features through adaptive weight allocation of the attention mechanism. Experiments on the Singapore dataset and ablation studies demonstrated the effectiveness of VMD, SENet, and MHA in enhancing network performance. Multi-model comparisons showed that the V-MAF model outperformed others, providing more stable and accurate predictions. On Dataset 1, the V-MAF model achieved the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 1.3168, reduced errors by 11.09% to 59.13% compared to other models such as XGBoost, ATT-CNN-LSTM, BiGRU, and VMD-Transformer.

Keyword:

Attention mechanism Electricity price forecasting Energy markets Feature fusion Variational mode decomposition

Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Xu, Yuzhen]Fuzhou Univ, Coll Elect Engn & Automat, Fuzhou 350116, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Huang, Xin]Fuzhou Univ, Coll Elect Engn & Automat, Fuzhou 350116, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Gao, Ziao]Fuzhou Univ, Coll Elect Engn & Automat, Fuzhou 350116, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Jin, Tao]Fuzhou Univ, Coll Elect Engn & Automat, Fuzhou 350116, Peoples R China
  • [ 5 ] [Xu, Yuzhen]Fujian Prov Univ, Engn Res Ctr Smart Distribut Grid Equipment, Fuzhou 350108, Peoples R China
  • [ 6 ] [Huang, Xin]Fujian Prov Univ, Engn Res Ctr Smart Distribut Grid Equipment, Fuzhou 350108, Peoples R China
  • [ 7 ] [Gao, Ziao]Fujian Prov Univ, Engn Res Ctr Smart Distribut Grid Equipment, Fuzhou 350108, Peoples R China
  • [ 8 ] [Jin, Tao]Fujian Prov Univ, Engn Res Ctr Smart Distribut Grid Equipment, Fuzhou 350108, Peoples R China
  • [ 9 ] [Mohamed, Mohamed A.]Minia Univ, Fac Engn, Elect Engn Dept, Al Minya 61519, Egypt

Reprint 's Address:

  • [Jin, Tao]Fuzhou Univ, Coll Elect Engn & Automat, Fuzhou 350116, Peoples R China;;[Mohamed, Mohamed A.]Minia Univ, Fac Engn, Elect Engn Dept, Al Minya 61519, Egypt

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Source :

MEASUREMENT

ISSN: 0263-2241

Year: 2025

Volume: 253

5 . 2 0 0

JCR@2023

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count:

SCOPUS Cited Count:

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 0

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