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author:

Xu, Yuzhen (Xu, Yuzhen.) [1] (Scholars:徐玉珍) | Huang, Xin (Huang, Xin.) [2] | Zheng, Xidong (Zheng, Xidong.) [3] | Zeng, Ziyang (Zeng, Ziyang.) [4] | Jin, Tao (Jin, Tao.) [5] (Scholars:金涛)

Indexed by:

EI Scopus SCIE

Abstract:

Electricity price prediction is essential for the optimal dispatch in power markets, with accurate prediction models being critical for efficient power system operations and market trading decisions. Deep learning networks, with their powerful nonlinear modeling capabilities, have shown promising results in electricity price forecasting. However, their design techniques, especially the selection of network parameters, remain challenging. This indicates that the optimization and exploration of deep learning networks in electricity price forecasting models require further investigation. This paper innovatively proposes a forecasting model that uniquely integrates Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD), Grey Wolf Optimization (GWO), Attention Mechanism (ATT), and Long Short-Term Memory Network (LSTM), optimizing the model from three different perspectives. First, during the data preprocessing phase, the training set is subjected to VMD to reduce noise, thereby enhancing the capture of multi-scale characteristics inherent in electricity price time series. The ATT layer is integrated to adaptively allocate weights, enhancing the model's focus on significant features. The GWO is applied to optimize hyperparameters of the LSTM, accelerating convergence and improving iteration accuracy, thereby reducing model error. A series of experiments were conducted using multiple regional electricity price datasets, evaluated with several metrics including RMSE. The results validated the effectiveness of the proposed three modules in improving the performance of the time series network, with VMD making the most significant contribution. Among all models, VMD-GWO-ATT-LSTM consistently outperformed others, demonstrating its effectiveness and robustness in electricity price forecasting.

Keyword:

Attention mechanism Electricity price prediction Grey wolf optimization algorithm Long-short term memory Variational mode decomposition

Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Xu, Yuzhen]Fuzhou Univ, Dept Elect Engn, Fuzhou 350116, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Huang, Xin]Fuzhou Univ, Dept Elect Engn, Fuzhou 350116, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Zheng, Xidong]Fuzhou Univ, Dept Elect Engn, Fuzhou 350116, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Zeng, Ziyang]Fuzhou Univ, Dept Elect Engn, Fuzhou 350116, Peoples R China
  • [ 5 ] [Jin, Tao]Fuzhou Univ, Dept Elect Engn, Fuzhou 350116, Peoples R China
  • [ 6 ] [Zheng, Xidong]Univ Queensland, Sch Informat Technol & Elect Engn, Brisbane, Qld 4072, Australia

Reprint 's Address:

  • [Jin, Tao]Fuzhou Univ, Dept Elect Engn, Fuzhou 350116, Peoples R China;;

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Source :

RENEWABLE ENERGY

ISSN: 0960-1481

Year: 2024

Volume: 236

9 . 0 0 0

JCR@2023

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count:

SCOPUS Cited Count:

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 2

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