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author:

Xu, Mengnan (Xu, Mengnan.) [1] | Xu, Qifa (Xu, Qifa.) [2] | Jiang, Cuixia (Jiang, Cuixia.) [3] | Zhuo, Xingxuan (Zhuo, Xingxuan.) [4] (Scholars:卓杏轩)

Indexed by:

SSCI Scopus SCIE

Abstract:

High-frequency macro-financial environment variables provide more useful information and are efficient in predicting the low-frequency GDP growth rate. To this end, we extend the traditional Growth-at-Risk (GaR) into a high-frequency GaR (HF-GaR). In this extension, we construct three high-frequency macro-financial environment indices using a mixed frequency dynamic factor model and then use a mixed data sampling-quantile regression method to measure China's daily GaR from Jan 1, 2000, to Sep 30, 2024. The evidence shows that our HF-GaR has favorable prediction performance, with quantile mean absolute error and quantile root square error values less than 0.1 and is significantly superior to the traditional GaR at the 1% level for most quantiles. Additionally, HF-GaR can offer early warning of economic downturns, especially predicting China's GDP growth rate at the 5% quantile less than 0 in 2020Q1. Moreover, we conduct a counterfactual scenario analysis and find that the conditional quantile of GDP growth rate changes as the macro-financial environment tightens or loosens. Finally, we also validated that the HF-GaR model is equally applicable in other economies.

Keyword:

Counterfactual scenario analysis Growth-at-Risk MF-DFM MIDAS-QR Skewed t-distribution

Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Xu, Mengnan]Anhui Univ Chinese Med, Sch Pharmaceut Econ & Management, Hefei 230012, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Xu, Mengnan]Key Lab Data Sci & Innovat Dev Tradit Chinese Med, Hefei 230012, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Xu, Qifa]Hefei Univ Technol, Sch Management, Hefei 230009, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Jiang, Cuixia]Hefei Univ Technol, Sch Management, Hefei 230009, Peoples R China
  • [ 5 ] [Zhuo, Xingxuan]Fuzhou Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Fuzhou 350108, Peoples R China

Reprint 's Address:

  • [Xu, Mengnan]Anhui Univ Chinese Med, Sch Pharmaceut Econ & Management, Hefei 230012, Peoples R China;;[Xu, Mengnan]Key Lab Data Sci & Innovat Dev Tradit Chinese Med, Hefei 230012, Peoples R China

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Source :

COMPUTATIONAL ECONOMICS

ISSN: 0927-7099

Year: 2025

1 . 9 0 0

JCR@2023

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count:

SCOPUS Cited Count:

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 2

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