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author:

Xu, M. (Xu, M..) [1] | Xu, Q. (Xu, Q..) [2] | Jiang, C. (Jiang, C..) [3] | Zhuo, X. (Zhuo, X..) [4]

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Scopus

Abstract:

High-frequency macro-financial environment variables provide more useful information and are efficient in predicting the low-frequency GDP growth rate. To this end, we extend the traditional Growth-at-Risk (GaR) into a high-frequency GaR (HF-GaR). In this extension, we construct three high-frequency macro-financial environment indices using a mixed frequency dynamic factor model and then use a mixed data sampling-quantile regression method to measure China’s daily GaR from Jan 1, 2000, to Sep 30, 2024. The evidence shows that our HF-GaR has favorable prediction performance, with quantile mean absolute error and quantile root square error values less than 0.1 and is significantly superior to the traditional GaR at the 1% level for most quantiles. Additionally, HF-GaR can offer early warning of economic downturns, especially predicting China’s GDP growth rate at the 5% quantile less than 0 in 2020Q1. Moreover, we conduct a counterfactual scenario analysis and find that the conditional quantile of GDP growth rate changes as the macro-financial environment tightens or loosens. Finally, we also validated that the HF-GaR model is equally applicable in other economies. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2025.

Keyword:

Counterfactual scenario analysis Growth-at-Risk MF-DFM MIDAS-QR Skewed t-distribution

Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Xu M.]School of Pharmaceutical Economics and Management, Anhui University of Chinese Medicine, Hefei, 230012, China
  • [ 2 ] [Xu M.]Key Laboratory of Data Science and Innovative Development of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Philosophy and Social Sciences of Anhui Province, Hefei, 230012, China
  • [ 3 ] [Xu Q.]School of Management, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei, 230009, China
  • [ 4 ] [Jiang C.]School of Management, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei, 230009, China
  • [ 5 ] [Zhuo X.]School of Economics and Management, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou, 350108, China

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Source :

Computational Economics

ISSN: 0927-7099

Year: 2025

1 . 9 0 0

JCR@2023

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ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

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30 Days PV: 0

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